Prediction: Ulsan HD vs Jeonbuk Motors
Expected goals: 2.67 (Ulsan HD 1.3 · Jeonbuk Motors 1.37). The model gives 34% home, 28% draw, 37% away. Over 2.5 goals (50%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Ulsan HD is 4-2-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Jeonbuk Motors 4-3-3 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Ulsan HD and 4 for Jeonbuk Motors.
| Ulsan HD | Draw | Jeonbuk Motors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jeonbuk Motors (rating 1471 vs 1532).
- H2H favours Jeonbuk Motors: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ulsan HD | Jeonbuk Motors | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 5.5 | 2.1 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulsan HD 2–0–4 Jeonbuk Motors
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 South Korea K League 1 | Jeonbuk Motors | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 30/08/25 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Jeonbuk Motors |
| 31/05/25 South Korea K League 1 | Jeonbuk Motors | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Ulsan HD |
| 01/03/25 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Jeonbuk Motors |
| 20/07/24 South Korea K League 1 | Jeonbuk Motors | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 01/06/24 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Jeonbuk Motors |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | Gangwon FC | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Ulsan HD | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 26 |
| 5 | Pohang Steelers | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 25 |
| 6 | Incheon Utd | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Anyang | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 20 |
| 8 | Jeju United | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Bucheon | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 18 |
| 10 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 37 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ulsan HD | Jeonbuk Motors |
|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC | 1-1 D | 4-0 W |
| Gangwon FC | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Jeju United | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Bucheon | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Pohang Steelers | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| FC Anyang | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| FC Seoul | 1-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Jeonbuk Motors (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ulsan HD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 13/05 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 05/05 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/04 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
2-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 15/04 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
Jeonbuk Motors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 13/05 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 05/05 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 11/04 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ulsan HD vs Jeonbuk Motors?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Jeonbuk Motors win (37%). Probabilities: Ulsan HD 34%, draw 28%, Jeonbuk Motors 37%.
How many goals are expected in Ulsan HD vs Jeonbuk Motors?
The model expects 2.67 goals (Ulsan HD 1.3 · Jeonbuk Motors 1.37), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ulsan HD vs Jeonbuk Motors?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.