Football · South Korea K League 1 · 29/08, 12:30
Prediction: Ulsan HD vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Team pages: Ulsan HD · Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.53Total
Ulsan HD1.53
Gimcheon Sangmu FC1
1X2
Ulsan HD
Draw
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Ulsan HD
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2-7-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ulsan HD
2–2–2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
(6 last)
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC1-2Ulsan HD
- Ulsan HD0-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC3-0Ulsan HD
- Ulsan HD3-2Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC2-0Ulsan HD
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC0-0Ulsan HD
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ulsan HD 1469 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1512
| Ulsan HD | Draw | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC (rating 1469 vs 1512).
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ulsan HD | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.1 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulsan HD 2–2–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/26 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Ulsan HD |
| 22/03/26 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 05/10/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 24/05/25 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 27/04/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 19/10/24 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ulsan HD |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 46 | 19 | 50 |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 37 | 34 | 37 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 | 22 | 37 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 22 | 35 |
| 5 | Jeju SK | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 24 | 35 |
| 6 | Incheon Utd | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 25 | 33 |
| 7 | Pohang Steelers | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 28 | 31 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 30 | 37 | 30 |
| 9 | Bucheon | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 30 |
| 10 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 28 | 29 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 24 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 26 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 24 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 12 | 50 | 11 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ulsan HD | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
|---|---|---|
| Jeonbuk Motors | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Gangwon FC | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Pohang Steelers | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| FC Seoul | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Incheon Utd | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Gwangju FC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 4 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ulsan HD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 16/08 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/07 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 11/07 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 01/08 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 18/07 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/07 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 05/07 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ulsan HD vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ulsan HD win (49%). Probabilities: Ulsan HD 49%, draw 27%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 24%.
How many goals are expected in Ulsan HD vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
The model expects 2.53 goals (Ulsan HD 1.53 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ulsan HD vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.