Football · South Korea K League 1 · 30/08, 12:30
Prediction: Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul
Team pages: Gwangju FC · FC Seoul
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Gwangju FC0.77
FC Seoul1.86
1X2
Gwangju FC
Draw
FC Seoul
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-2 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Gwangju FC
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
FC Seoul
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gwangju FC
2–4
FC Seoul
(6 last)
- Gwangju FC0-1FC Seoul
- FC Seoul5-0Gwangju FC
- FC Seoul3-0Gwangju FC
- Gwangju FC1-3FC Seoul
- FC Seoul1-2Gwangju FC
- Gwangju FC3-1FC Seoul
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gwangju FC 1414 · FC Seoul 1589
| Gwangju FC | Draw | FC Seoul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 24% | 62% |
| Market | 15% | 22% | 63% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Seoul (rating 1414 vs 1589).
- H2H favours FC Seoul: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gwangju FC | FC Seoul | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.7 | 2 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.3 | 2.7 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gwangju FC 2–0–4 FC Seoul
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | FC Seoul |
| 22/03/26 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 21/09/25 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 13/06/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 1-3 HT 0-1 | FC Seoul |
| 19/04/25 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Gwangju FC |
| 06/10/24 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 3-1 HT 0-0 | FC Seoul |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 46 | 19 | 50 |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 37 | 34 | 37 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 | 22 | 37 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 28 | 22 | 35 |
| 5 | Jeju SK | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 24 | 35 |
| 6 | Incheon Utd | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 25 | 33 |
| 7 | Pohang Steelers | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 28 | 31 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 30 | 37 | 30 |
| 9 | Bucheon | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 30 |
| 10 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 28 | 29 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 24 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 26 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 24 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 12 | 50 | 11 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gwangju FC | FC Seoul |
|---|---|---|
| Incheon Utd | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Pohang Steelers | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Bucheon | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 0-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| FC Anyang | 1-1 D | 7-0 W |
| Ulsan HD | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 4 D 3 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Seoul (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gwangju FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 22/07 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 19/07 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
FC Seoul
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
5-0 | 7-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 08/08 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 01/08 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 22/07 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 19/07 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 12/07 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Seoul win (63%). Probabilities: Gwangju FC 14%, draw 23%, FC Seoul 63%.
How many goals are expected in Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Gwangju FC 0.77 · FC Seoul 1.86), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs FC Seoul?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.