Prediction: Gwangju FC vs Pohang Steelers
Expected goals: 2.36 (Gwangju FC 0.7 · Pohang Steelers 1.66). The model gives 15% home, 26% draw, 59% away. Under 2.25 goals (52%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 0-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Gwangju FC sits at 0-2-8 (W-D-L), while Pohang Steelers arrives on a 5-1-4 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Gwangju FC won 2 and Pohang Steelers 4.
| Gwangju FC | Draw | Pohang Steelers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 26% | 59% |
| Market | 15% | 25% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pohang Steelers (rating 1388 vs 1531).
- H2H favours Pohang Steelers: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gwangju FC | Pohang Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 2.7 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 1.1 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.7 / 2.6 | 2.3 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gwangju FC 2–0–4 Pohang Steelers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 South Korea K League 1 | Pohang Steelers | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 10/08/25 South Korea K League 1 | Pohang Steelers | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 18/05/25 South Korea K League 1 | Pohang Steelers | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 22/03/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Pohang Steelers |
| 13/09/24 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Pohang Steelers |
| 28/05/24 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Pohang Steelers |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | Gangwon FC | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Ulsan HD | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 26 |
| 5 | Pohang Steelers | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 25 |
| 6 | Incheon Utd | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Anyang | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 20 |
| 8 | Jeju United | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 18 |
| 9 | Bucheon | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 18 |
| 10 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 21 | 14 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 37 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gwangju FC | Pohang Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Ulsan HD | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Incheon Utd | 0-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Gangwon FC | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Jeonbuk Motors | 0-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 0-5 L | 2-0 W |
| FC Anyang | 2-5 L | 3-2 W |
| Bucheon | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 5 L | 4 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Pohang Steelers (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gwangju FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 22/04 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
1-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Pohang Steelers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 12/05 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 05/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/04 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gwangju FC vs Pohang Steelers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Pohang Steelers win (59%). Probabilities: Gwangju FC 15%, draw 26%, Pohang Steelers 59%.
How many goals are expected in Gwangju FC vs Pohang Steelers?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Gwangju FC 0.7 · Pohang Steelers 1.66), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Pohang Steelers?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.