Football · Australia New South Wales League 1 · 25/07, 08:30

Prediction: Macarthur Rams vs Hurstville FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Macarthur Rams1.36

Hurstville FC1.18

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Macarthur Rams Draw Hurstville FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Macarthur Rams 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Hurstville FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Macarthur Rams 0–1 Hurstville FC (1 last)

Hurstville FC2-0Macarthur Rams

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Macarthur Rams 1537 · Hurstville FC 1525

	Macarthur Rams	Draw	Hurstville FC
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Macarthur Rams	Hurstville FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	2.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +7’	2.15	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Macarthur Rams 0–0–1 Hurstville FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Australia New South Wales League 1	Hurstville FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Macarthur Rams

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blacktown Spartans	24	16	5	3	60	31	53
2	Northern Tigers	24	13	7	4	43	22	46
3	Bankstown City Lions FC	24	13	4	7	45	37	43
4	Macarthur Rams	24	12	6	6	32	25	42
5	Canterbury Bankstown FC	24	12	5	7	57	39	41
6	Rydalmere Lions FC	24	10	7	7	37	34	37
7	Hills United FC	24	10	6	8	42	39	36
8	Bulls FC Academy	24	10	3	11	44	39	33
9	Hakoah Sydney City East	24	7	9	8	41	40	30
10	Hurstville FC	24	8	6	10	37	39	30
11	Central Coast Mariners U21	24	7	6	11	40	47	27
12	Inter Lions	24	7	4	13	29	46	25
13	Newcastle Jets NPL	24	5	8	11	45	55	23
14	Dulwich Hill	24	5	8	11	27	47	23
15	Western City Rangers	24	5	4	15	29	48	19
16	Prospect United	24	2	12	10	23	43	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Macarthur Rams	Hurstville FC
Prospect United	2-1 W	2-1 W
Inter Lions	3-2 W	1-2 L
Hakoah Sydney City East	1-1 D	1-1 D
Newcastle Jets NPL	1-0 W	1-0 W
Hills United FC	2-3 L	2-1 W
Rydalmere Lions FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Western City Rangers	2-0 W	1-1 D
Canterbury Bankstown FC	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Macarthur Rams

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
10/07	Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
04/07	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	3-2	4	4	W
27/06	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
13/06	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
06/06	Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
30/05	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/05	Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
16/05	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	0-2	6	6	L

Hurstville FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	3-1	9	4	W
11/07	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
03/07	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
27/06	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/06	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
13/06	Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
06/06	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
30/05	Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
23/05	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
15/05	Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	2-1	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Macarthur Rams vs Hurstville FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Macarthur Rams win (41%). Probabilities: Macarthur Rams 41%, draw 27%, Hurstville FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Macarthur Rams vs Hurstville FC?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Macarthur Rams 1.36 · Hurstville FC 1.18), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Macarthur Rams vs Hurstville FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.