Football · Australia New South Wales League 2 · 28/08, 12:00

Prediction: Fraser Park vs Dunbar Rovers FC

Team pages: Fraser Park · Dunbar Rovers FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Fraser Park1.64

Dunbar Rovers FC1.43

1X2

42% 25% 33%

Fraser Park Draw Dunbar Rovers FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fraser Park 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWWLWL

Dunbar Rovers FC 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDDDWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Fraser Park 0–2–2 Dunbar Rovers FC (4 last)

Dunbar Rovers FC3-1Fraser Park
Dunbar Rovers FC2-1Fraser Park
Dunbar Rovers FC0-0Fraser Park
Dunbar Rovers FC0-0Fraser Park

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fraser Park 1495 · Dunbar Rovers FC 1589

	Fraser Park	Draw	Dunbar Rovers FC
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dunbar Rovers FC (rating 1495 vs 1589).
H2H favours Dunbar Rovers FC: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fraser Park	Dunbar Rovers FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.8	1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.75

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:02 +6’	2.10	3.75	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fraser Park 0–2–2 Dunbar Rovers FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia New South Wales League 2	Dunbar Rovers FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Fraser Park
15/02/25 Australia New South Wales League 2	Dunbar Rovers FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Fraser Park
28/04/18 Australia New South Wales League 3	Dunbar Rovers FC	0-0	Fraser Park
24/06/17 Australia New South Wales League 3	Dunbar Rovers FC	0-0	Fraser Park

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mounties Wanderers	27	22	2	3	97	29	68
2	Parramatta Eagles	27	17	3	7	68	35	54
3	Dunbar Rovers FC	27	14	5	8	50	32	47
4	Bonnyrigg White Eagles	27	14	4	9	52	42	46
5	Fraser Park	27	13	6	8	48	34	45
6	Western Rage	27	13	5	9	51	53	44
7	Central Coast United FC	27	12	5	10	44	44	41
8	Sydney University	27	11	4	12	45	39	37
9	Hawkesbury City SC	27	11	3	13	51	70	36
10	South Coast Flame FC	27	9	8	10	34	37	35
11	Gladesville Ryde Magic	28	9	2	17	40	67	29
12	Nepean FC	27	8	4	15	47	66	28
13	Inner West Hawks	27	8	4	15	37	51	28
14	Bankstown United FC	27	6	6	15	31	56	24
15	Camden Tigers SC	27	2	7	18	34	74	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fraser Park	Dunbar Rovers FC
Central Coast United FC	2-1 W	3-0 W
Western Rage	1-2 L	1-1 D
Gladesville Ryde Magic	2-1 W	6-0 W
Nepean FC	5-4 W	2-0 W
Inner West Hawks	3-1 W	2-1 W
Sydney University	0-2 L	1-0 W
Mounties Wanderers	1-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Dunbar Rovers FC (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fraser Park

LDLWWWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
14/08	Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	2-1	3	10	W
06/08	Western Rage Australia New South Wales League 2	0-2	1-2	6	4	L
31/07	South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-2	3-2	13	2	W
24/07	Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/07	Nepean FC Australia New South Wales League 2	4-0	5-4	3	4	W
10/07	Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	3-1	11	5	W
27/06	Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
20/06	Hawkesbury City SC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/06	Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	1-4	2	1	L

Dunbar Rovers FC

WDDDWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
16/08	Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2	5-0	6-0	2	5	W
01/08	Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
26/07	Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
11/07	Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	3-0	5	2	W
04/07	Western Rage Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
27/06	Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	Camden Tigers SC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/06	Nepean FC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fraser Park vs Dunbar Rovers FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fraser Park win (42%). Probabilities: Fraser Park 42%, draw 25%, Dunbar Rovers FC 33%.

How many goals are expected in Fraser Park vs Dunbar Rovers FC?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Fraser Park 1.64 · Dunbar Rovers FC 1.43), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Fraser Park vs Dunbar Rovers FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.