Football · Australia New South Wales League 2 · 28/08, 12:00

Prediction: Nepean FC vs Western Rage

Team pages: Nepean FC · Western Rage

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.84Total

Nepean FC1.65

Western Rage2.19

1X2

29% 22% 50%

Nepean FC Draw Western Rage

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Nepean FC 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLLLL

Western Rage 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Nepean FC 2–2 Western Rage (4 last)

Western Rage1-2Nepean FC
Nepean FC2-5Western Rage
Western Rage1-0Nepean FC
Nepean FC3-1Western Rage

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nepean FC 1397 · Western Rage 1522

	Nepean FC	Draw	Western Rage
Our model	29%	22%	49%
Market	29%	21%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Western Rage (rating 1397 vs 1522).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nepean FC	Western Rage
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 3.3	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	1 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X4.20

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
07:00 +4’	3.10	4.20	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nepean FC 2–0–2 Western Rage

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia New South Wales League 2	Western Rage	1-2 HT 1-1	Nepean FC
08/07/25 Australia New South Wales League 2	Nepean FC	2-5 HT 0-1	Western Rage
22/03/25 Australia New South Wales League 2	Western Rage	1-0 HT 0-0	Nepean FC
03/03/23 Australia New South Wales League 2	Nepean FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Western Rage

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mounties Wanderers	27	22	2	3	97	29	68
2	Parramatta Eagles	27	17	3	7	68	35	54
3	Dunbar Rovers FC	27	14	5	8	50	32	47
4	Bonnyrigg White Eagles	27	14	4	9	52	42	46
5	Fraser Park	27	13	6	8	48	34	45
6	Western Rage	27	13	5	9	51	53	44
7	Central Coast United FC	27	12	5	10	44	44	41
8	Sydney University	27	11	4	12	45	39	37
9	Hawkesbury City SC	27	11	3	13	51	70	36
10	South Coast Flame FC	27	9	8	10	34	37	35
11	Gladesville Ryde Magic	28	9	2	17	40	67	29
12	Nepean FC	27	8	4	15	47	66	28
13	Inner West Hawks	27	8	4	15	37	51	28
14	Bankstown United FC	27	6	6	15	31	56	24
15	Camden Tigers SC	27	2	7	18	34	74	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nepean FC	Western Rage
Central Coast United FC	0-1 L	1-3 L
Hawkesbury City SC	3-5 L	1-0 W
Bonnyrigg White Eagles	2-4 L	3-2 W
Camden Tigers SC	2-2 D	2-0 W
Fraser Park	4-5 L	2-1 W
Parramatta Eagles	1-3 L	3-2 W
Gladesville Ryde Magic	2-3 L	2-0 W
Dunbar Rovers FC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 7 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Western Rage (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nepean FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
14/08	Hawkesbury City SC Australia New South Wales League 2	3-1	3-5	2	5	L
08/08	Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
31/07	Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	1-2	2-4	6	3	L
25/07	Camden Tigers SC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
17/07	Fraser Park Australia New South Wales League 2	0-4	4-5	3	4	L
03/07	Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2	0-2	2-4	–	–	L
27/06	Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
20/06	Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2	0-2	2-3	4	2	L
12/06	Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Western Rage

LWDWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Camden Tigers SC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Hawkesbury City SC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/08	Fraser Park Australia New South Wales League 2	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
01/08	Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/07	Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	3-2	4	5	W
04/07	Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
28/06	Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
20/06	Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-2	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nepean FC vs Western Rage?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Western Rage win (50%). Probabilities: Nepean FC 29%, draw 22%, Western Rage 50%.

How many goals are expected in Nepean FC vs Western Rage?

The model expects 3.84 goals (Nepean FC 1.65 · Western Rage 2.19), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nepean FC vs Western Rage?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.