Prediction: Northern Tigers vs Newcastle Jets NPL
Expected goals: 3.52 (Northern Tigers 2.33 · Newcastle Jets NPL 1.2). The model gives 62% home, 20% draw, 18% away. Under 3.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, Northern Tigers is 5-3-2 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Newcastle Jets NPL 1-2-7 over its own. In the last 3 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for Northern Tigers and 1 for Newcastle Jets NPL, with 1 draw.
| Northern Tigers | Draw | Newcastle Jets NPL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Northern Tigers (rating 1547 vs 1432).
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Northern Tigers | Newcastle Jets NPL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 1.7 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 5.9 | 1.3 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Northern Tigers 1–1–1 Newcastle Jets NPL
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Newcastle Jets NPL | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Northern Tigers |
| 28/06/25 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Northern Tigers | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Newcastle Jets NPL |
| 15/03/25 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Newcastle Jets NPL | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Northern Tigers |
Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blacktown Spartans | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 56 | 30 | 47 |
| 2 | Northern Tigers | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 39 | 19 | 42 |
| 3 | Bankstown City Lions FC | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 36 | 39 |
| 4 | Canterbury Bankstown FC | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 54 | 36 | 38 |
| 5 | Macarthur Rams | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 23 | 38 |
| 6 | Hills United FC | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 38 | 36 | 32 |
| 7 | Rydalmere Lions FC | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 34 | 31 |
| 8 | Bulls FC Academy | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 39 | 31 | 30 |
| 9 | Hakoah Sydney City East | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 39 | 37 | 29 |
| 10 | Central Coast Mariners U21 | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 43 | 27 |
| 11 | Hurstville FC | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 33 | 37 | 26 |
| 12 | Inter Lions | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 27 | 40 | 24 |
| 13 | Dulwich Hill | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 39 | 23 |
| 14 | Newcastle Jets NPL | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 41 | 50 | 22 |
| 15 | Prospect United | 22 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 21 | 39 | 18 |
| 16 | Western City Rangers | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 26 | 45 | 16 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Northern Tigers | Newcastle Jets NPL |
|---|---|---|
| Dulwich Hill | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Hakoah Sydney City East | 0-1 L | 3-5 L |
| Inter Lions | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Bankstown City Lions FC | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Prospect United | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Canterbury Bankstown FC | 1-2 L | 5-6 L |
| Macarthur Rams | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Bulls FC Academy | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Northern Tigers (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Northern Tigers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 09/05 | Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Newcastle Jets NPL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-1 | 2-7 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
2-3 | 5-6 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Hurstville FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1 |
2-3 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Northern Tigers vs Newcastle Jets NPL?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Northern Tigers win (62%). Probabilities: Northern Tigers 62%, draw 20%, Newcastle Jets NPL 18%.
How many goals are expected in Northern Tigers vs Newcastle Jets NPL?
The model expects 3.52 goals (Northern Tigers 2.33 · Newcastle Jets NPL 1.2), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Northern Tigers vs Newcastle Jets NPL?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.