Football · Australia New South Wales League 1 · 19/07, 07:00
Prediction: Central Coast Mariners U21 vs Northern Tigers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
Central Coast Mariners U211.22
Northern Tigers2.01
1X2
Central Coast Mariners U21
Draw
Northern Tigers
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Central Coast Mariners U21
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Northern Tigers
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Central Coast Mariners U21
5–1–0
Northern Tigers
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Central Coast Mariners U21 1454 · Northern Tigers 1522
| Central Coast Mariners U21 | Draw | Northern Tigers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Market | 22% | 22% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Northern Tigers (rating 1454 vs 1522).
- H2H favours Central Coast Mariners U21: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Central Coast Mariners U21 | Northern Tigers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.3 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.5 | 3.7 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Central Coast Mariners U21 5–1–0 Northern Tigers
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Northern Tigers | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Central Coast Mariners U21 |
| 27/08/22 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Central Coast Mariners U21 | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Northern Tigers |
| 16/07/22 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Northern Tigers | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Central Coast Mariners U21 |
| 01/05/22 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Central Coast Mariners U21 | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Northern Tigers |
| 10/10/20 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Central Coast Mariners U21 | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Northern Tigers |
| 08/08/20 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Central Coast Mariners U21 | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Northern Tigers |
Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blacktown Spartans | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 58 | 30 | 50 |
| 2 | Northern Tigers | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 41 | 21 | 43 |
| 3 | Canterbury Bankstown FC | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 56 | 37 | 41 |
| 4 | Bankstown City Lions FC | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 40 | 37 | 40 |
| 5 | Macarthur Rams | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 24 | 39 |
| 6 | Rydalmere Lions FC | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 33 | 34 | 34 |
| 7 | Hills United FC | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 38 | 33 |
| 8 | Bulls FC Academy | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 34 | 33 |
| 9 | Hakoah Sydney City East | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 40 | 38 | 30 |
| 10 | Central Coast Mariners U21 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 39 | 45 | 27 |
| 11 | Hurstville FC | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 34 | 38 | 27 |
| 12 | Inter Lions | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 29 | 42 | 25 |
| 13 | Newcastle Jets NPL | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 43 | 52 | 23 |
| 14 | Dulwich Hill | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 26 | 44 | 23 |
| 15 | Prospect United | 23 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 22 | 41 | 18 |
| 16 | Western City Rangers | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 26 | 46 | 16 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Central Coast Mariners U21 | Northern Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Canterbury Bankstown FC | 0-6 L | 1-2 L |
| Bankstown City Lions FC | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Hakoah Sydney City East | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Dulwich Hill | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Macarthur Rams | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Prospect United | 2-4 L | 3-0 W |
| Hills United FC | 5-3 W | 2-1 W |
| Western City Rangers | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 3 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Northern Tigers (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Central Coast Mariners U21
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-2 | 0-6 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/06 | Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1 |
2-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 06/06 | Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-2 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
2-2 | 5-3 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
Northern Tigers
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 04/07 | Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 09/05 | Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Central Coast Mariners U21 vs Northern Tigers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Northern Tigers win (55%). Probabilities: Central Coast Mariners U21 22%, draw 23%, Northern Tigers 55%.
How many goals are expected in Central Coast Mariners U21 vs Northern Tigers?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Central Coast Mariners U21 1.22 · Northern Tigers 2.01), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Central Coast Mariners U21 vs Northern Tigers?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.