Football · Australia New South Wales League 1 · 25/07, 09:00

Prediction: Newcastle Jets NPL vs Hills United FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.83Total

Newcastle Jets NPL1.93

Hills United FC1.9

1X2

39% 23% 38%

Newcastle Jets NPL Draw Hills United FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Newcastle Jets NPL 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLLLDL

Hills United FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Newcastle Jets NPL 2–1 Hills United FC (3 last)

Hills United FC1-2Newcastle Jets NPL
Hills United FC2-0Newcastle Jets NPL
Newcastle Jets NPL2-1Hills United FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hills United FC (rating 1448 vs 1499).
H2H favours Newcastle Jets NPL: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newcastle Jets NPL	Hills United FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.6	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.81

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:04

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.47 → 2.47	Pinn 2.47
X	3.58 → 3.58	Pinn 3.58
2	2.27 → 2.27	Pinn 2.27

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:04	2.47	3.58	2.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle Jets NPL 2–0–1 Hills United FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Australia New South Wales League 1	Hills United FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Newcastle Jets NPL
14/06/25 Australia New South Wales League 1	Hills United FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Newcastle Jets NPL
01/03/25 Australia New South Wales League 1	Newcastle Jets NPL	2-1 HT 0-1	Hills United FC

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blacktown Spartans	24	16	5	3	60	31	53
2	Northern Tigers	24	13	7	4	43	22	46
3	Bankstown City Lions FC	24	13	4	7	45	37	43
4	Macarthur Rams	24	12	6	6	32	25	42
5	Canterbury Bankstown FC	24	12	5	7	57	39	41
6	Rydalmere Lions FC	24	10	7	7	37	34	37
7	Hills United FC	24	10	6	8	42	39	36
8	Bulls FC Academy	24	10	3	11	44	39	33
9	Hakoah Sydney City East	24	7	9	8	41	40	30
10	Hurstville FC	24	8	6	10	37	39	30
11	Central Coast Mariners U21	24	7	6	11	40	47	27
12	Inter Lions	24	7	4	13	29	46	25
13	Newcastle Jets NPL	24	5	8	11	45	55	23
14	Dulwich Hill	24	5	8	11	27	47	23
15	Western City Rangers	24	5	4	15	29	48	19
16	Prospect United	24	2	12	10	23	43	18

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newcastle Jets NPL	Hills United FC
Northern Tigers	2-2 D	1-2 L
Blacktown Spartans	2-7 L	1-1 D
Inter Lions	1-2 L	2-2 D
Macarthur Rams	0-1 L	3-2 W
Prospect United	2-2 D	0-0 D
Bulls FC Academy	0-1 L	2-2 D
Hurstville FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hills United FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newcastle Jets NPL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
11/07	Northern Tigers Australia New South Wales League 1	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
04/07	Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	2-7	–	–	L
27/06	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	1-2	0	1	L
20/06	Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
13/06	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	2-3	5-6	4	1	L
06/06	Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
30/05	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	0-1	0	0	L
23/05	Hurstville FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
15/05	Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	3-1	3	5	W

Hills United FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
11/07	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
04/07	Northern Tigers Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
27/06	Hurstville FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
20/06	Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
13/06	Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
05/06	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	2-2	2-2	5	1	D
30/05	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	3-0	6-0	5	0	W
23/05	Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
17/05	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	2-2	3-5	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newcastle Jets NPL vs Hills United FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newcastle Jets NPL win (39%). Probabilities: Newcastle Jets NPL 39%, draw 23%, Hills United FC 38%.

How many goals are expected in Newcastle Jets NPL vs Hills United FC?

The model expects 3.83 goals (Newcastle Jets NPL 1.93 · Hills United FC 1.9), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle Jets NPL vs Hills United FC?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.