Football · Australia New South Wales League 1 · 29/08, 09:00

Prediction: Newcastle Jets NPL vs Bankstown City Lions FC

Team pages: Newcastle Jets NPL · Bankstown City Lions FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

Newcastle Jets NPL1.52

Bankstown City Lions FC2.26

1X2

25% 21% 54%

Newcastle Jets NPL Draw Bankstown City Lions FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Newcastle Jets NPL 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWDDLD

Bankstown City Lions FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWDWLW

Head-to-head

Newcastle Jets NPL 1–2 Bankstown City Lions FC (3 last)

Bankstown City Lions FC1-3Newcastle Jets NPL
Newcastle Jets NPL1-4Bankstown City Lions FC
Bankstown City Lions FC3-2Newcastle Jets NPL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newcastle Jets NPL 1463 · Bankstown City Lions FC 1550

	Newcastle Jets NPL	Draw	Bankstown City Lions FC
Our model	25%	22%	54%
Market	25%	21%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bankstown City Lions FC (rating 1463 vs 1550).
H2H favours Bankstown City Lions FC: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newcastle Jets NPL	Bankstown City Lions FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.4	2.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3	2.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.20

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +2’	3.60	4.20	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle Jets NPL 1–0–2 Bankstown City Lions FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Australia New South Wales League 1	Bankstown City Lions FC	1-3 HT 0-1	Newcastle Jets NPL
09/08/25 Australia New South Wales League 1	Newcastle Jets NPL	1-4 HT 0-1	Bankstown City Lions FC
26/04/25 Australia New South Wales League 1	Bankstown City Lions FC	3-2 HT 1-1	Newcastle Jets NPL

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blacktown Spartans	29	21	5	3	77	34	68
2	Northern Tigers	29	16	8	5	52	30	56
3	Bankstown City Lions FC	29	16	5	8	56	43	53
4	Canterbury Bankstown FC	29	14	6	9	68	51	48
5	Macarthur Rams	29	14	6	9	38	33	48
6	Hills United FC	29	13	7	9	54	45	46
7	Hakoah Sydney City East	29	9	11	9	53	51	38
8	Rydalmere Lions FC	29	10	7	12	39	46	37
9	Bulls FC Academy	29	11	4	14	50	48	37
10	Hurstville FC	29	10	5	14	44	51	35
11	Inter Lions	29	10	5	14	38	52	35
12	Central Coast Mariners U21	29	8	7	14	46	59	31
13	Dulwich Hill	29	7	9	13	38	55	30
14	Newcastle Jets NPL	29	6	11	12	53	64	29
15	Western City Rangers	29	6	6	17	37	59	24
16	Prospect United	29	3	14	12	30	52	23

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newcastle Jets NPL	Bankstown City Lions FC
Dulwich Hill	1-3 L	2-2 D
Central Coast Mariners U21	1-1 D	2-1 W
Hills United FC	2-1 W	2-2 D
Western City Rangers	2-3 L	3-2 W
Inter Lions	1-2 L	0-2 L
Macarthur Rams	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bankstown City Lions FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newcastle Jets NPL

LLLDLWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	3-3	2	3	D
15/08	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
08/08	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
25/07	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
18/07	Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
11/07	Northern Tigers Australia New South Wales League 1	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
04/07	Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	2-7	4	1	L
27/06	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	1-2	0	1	L
20/06	Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Bankstown City Lions FC

WWDDWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	3-1	5-1	12	2	W
15/08	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	0-2	8	5	L
08/08	Hurstville FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
01/08	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	2-2	2	3	D
25/07	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
18/07	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	5-0	2	3	W
10/07	Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
04/07	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	2-1	2-2	6	2	D
27/06	Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	3-2	2	4	W
20/06	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newcastle Jets NPL vs Bankstown City Lions FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bankstown City Lions FC win (54%). Probabilities: Newcastle Jets NPL 25%, draw 21%, Bankstown City Lions FC 54%.

How many goals are expected in Newcastle Jets NPL vs Bankstown City Lions FC?

The model expects 3.78 goals (Newcastle Jets NPL 1.52 · Bankstown City Lions FC 2.26), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle Jets NPL vs Bankstown City Lions FC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.