Football · Australia New South Wales League 1 · 29/08, 09:00

Prediction: Hills United FC vs Central Coast Mariners U21

Team pages: Hills United FC · Central Coast Mariners U21

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

Hills United FC2.35

Central Coast Mariners U211.37

1X2

59% 21% 21%

Hills United FC Draw Central Coast Mariners U21

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Hills United FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Central Coast Mariners U21 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hills United FC 1–5 Central Coast Mariners U21 (6 last)

Central Coast Mariners U215-3Hills United FC
Hills United FC2-0Central Coast Mariners U21
Central Coast Mariners U215-3Hills United FC
Central Coast Mariners U213-0Hills United FC
Hills United FC0-2Central Coast Mariners U21
Hills United FC0-1Central Coast Mariners U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hills United FC 1510 · Central Coast Mariners U21 1409

	Hills United FC	Draw	Central Coast Mariners U21
Our model	59%	21%	21%
Market	59%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hills United FC (rating 1510 vs 1409).
H2H favours Central Coast Mariners U21: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hills United FC	Central Coast Mariners U21
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	0.9 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.3	1.8 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.33

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +2’	1.53	4.33	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hills United FC 1–0–5 Central Coast Mariners U21

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Australia New South Wales League 1	Central Coast Mariners U21	5-3 HT 2-2	Hills United FC
08/06/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Hills United FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Central Coast Mariners U21
03/03/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League	Central Coast Mariners U21	5-3 HT 1-2	Hills United FC
24/07/22 Australia New South Wales League 1	Central Coast Mariners U21	3-0 HT 2-0	Hills United FC
07/05/22 Australia New South Wales League 1	Hills United FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Central Coast Mariners U21
10/04/21 Australia New South Wales League 2	Hills United FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Central Coast Mariners U21

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blacktown Spartans	29	21	5	3	77	34	68
2	Northern Tigers	29	16	8	5	52	30	56
3	Bankstown City Lions FC	29	16	5	8	56	43	53
4	Canterbury Bankstown FC	29	14	6	9	68	51	48
5	Macarthur Rams	29	14	6	9	38	33	48
6	Hills United FC	29	13	7	9	54	45	46
7	Hakoah Sydney City East	29	9	11	9	53	51	38
8	Rydalmere Lions FC	29	10	7	12	39	46	37
9	Bulls FC Academy	29	11	4	14	50	48	37
10	Hurstville FC	29	10	5	14	44	51	35
11	Inter Lions	29	10	5	14	38	52	35
12	Central Coast Mariners U21	29	8	7	14	46	59	31
13	Dulwich Hill	29	7	9	13	38	55	30
14	Newcastle Jets NPL	29	6	11	12	53	64	29
15	Western City Rangers	29	6	6	17	37	59	24
16	Prospect United	29	3	14	12	30	52	23

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hills United FC	Central Coast Mariners U21
Rydalmere Lions FC	3-1 W	1-2 L
Western City Rangers	2-1 W	2-4 L
Canterbury Bankstown FC	4-0 W	0-6 L
Bankstown City Lions FC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Newcastle Jets NPL	1-2 L	1-1 D
Inter Lions	2-2 D	1-4 L
Northern Tigers	1-2 L	1-2 L
Hurstville FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Hills United FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hills United FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	3-1	3	0	W
15/08	Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	3-0	4-0	11	2	W
01/08	Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
25/07	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
18/07	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
11/07	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
04/07	Northern Tigers Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
27/06	Hurstville FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
20/06	Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	0-0	8	3	D

Central Coast Mariners U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1	2-1	2-4	1	0	L
16/08	Hurstville FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
02/08	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-4	3	0	L
26/07	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-3	3	6	L
19/07	Northern Tigers Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/07	Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
05/07	Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	0-6	2	2	L
20/06	Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hills United FC vs Central Coast Mariners U21?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hills United FC win (59%). Probabilities: Hills United FC 59%, draw 21%, Central Coast Mariners U21 21%.

How many goals are expected in Hills United FC vs Central Coast Mariners U21?

The model expects 3.72 goals (Hills United FC 2.35 · Central Coast Mariners U21 1.37), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hills United FC vs Central Coast Mariners U21?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.