Football · Australia New South Wales League 1 · 29/08, 11:00

Prediction: Western City Rangers vs Northern Tigers

Team pages: Western City Rangers · Northern Tigers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Western City Rangers1.29

Northern Tigers2.1

1X2

22% 23% 55%

Western City Rangers Draw Northern Tigers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Western City Rangers 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLDLW

Northern Tigers 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Western City Rangers 2–3–1 Northern Tigers (6 last)

Northern Tigers1-1Western City Rangers
Western City Rangers1-2Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers0-4Western City Rangers
Western City Rangers2-1Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers2-2Western City Rangers
Western City Rangers1-1Northern Tigers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Western City Rangers 1456 · Northern Tigers 1548

	Western City Rangers	Draw	Northern Tigers
Our model	22%	23%	55%
Market	22%	22%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Northern Tigers (rating 1456 vs 1548).
H2H favours Western City Rangers: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Western City Rangers	Northern Tigers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.7	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.00

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
08:10 +4’	4.00	4.00	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Western City Rangers 2–3–1 Northern Tigers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia New South Wales League 1	Northern Tigers	1-1 HT 0-0	Western City Rangers
06/07/24 Australia New South Wales League 1	Western City Rangers	1-2 HT 0-2	Northern Tigers
29/03/24 Australia New South Wales League 1	Northern Tigers	0-4 HT 0-0	Western City Rangers
28/07/18 Australia New South Wales League 2	Western City Rangers	2-1 HT 1-1	Northern Tigers
28/04/18 Australia New South Wales League 2	Northern Tigers	2-2 HT 1-1	Western City Rangers
02/09/17 Australia New South Wales League 2	Western City Rangers	1-1 HT 0-0	Northern Tigers

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blacktown Spartans	29	21	5	3	77	34	68
2	Northern Tigers	29	16	8	5	52	30	56
3	Bankstown City Lions FC	29	16	5	8	56	43	53
4	Canterbury Bankstown FC	29	14	6	9	68	51	48
5	Macarthur Rams	29	14	6	9	38	33	48
6	Hills United FC	29	13	7	9	54	45	46
7	Hakoah Sydney City East	29	9	11	9	53	51	38
8	Rydalmere Lions FC	29	10	7	12	39	46	37
9	Bulls FC Academy	29	11	4	14	50	48	37
10	Hurstville FC	29	10	5	14	44	51	35
11	Inter Lions	29	10	5	14	38	52	35
12	Central Coast Mariners U21	29	8	7	14	46	59	31
13	Dulwich Hill	29	7	9	13	38	55	30
14	Newcastle Jets NPL	29	6	11	12	53	64	29
15	Western City Rangers	29	6	6	17	37	59	24
16	Prospect United	29	3	14	12	30	52	23

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Western City Rangers	Northern Tigers
Central Coast Mariners U21	4-2 W	2-1 W
Hills United FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Hakoah Sydney City East	0-9 L	0-1 L
Dulwich Hill	0-4 L	3-1 W
Newcastle Jets NPL	3-2 W	2-2 D
Rydalmere Lions FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Bulls FC Academy	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Northern Tigers (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Western City Rangers

LLWLWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	4-2	9	0	W
15/08	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
07/08	Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-1	9	5	D
01/08	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	0-5	0-9	–	–	L
25/07	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	0-4	4	1	L
18/07	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	2-1	3-2	4	5	W
11/07	Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
04/07	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
27/06	Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
20/06	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	0-1	6	3	L

Northern Tigers

LWWDWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	3-2	3	9	W
15/08	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
08/08	Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
01/08	Hurstville FC Australia New South Wales League 1	2-1	3-1	8	2	W
25/07	Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1	0-3	0-3	7	1	L
19/07	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
11/07	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	2-2	8	5	D
04/07	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
27/06	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	3-1	8	1	W
20/06	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	0-1	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Western City Rangers vs Northern Tigers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Northern Tigers win (55%). Probabilities: Western City Rangers 22%, draw 23%, Northern Tigers 55%.

How many goals are expected in Western City Rangers vs Northern Tigers?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Western City Rangers 1.29 · Northern Tigers 2.1), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Western City Rangers vs Northern Tigers?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.