Football · Australia New South Wales League 1 · 25/07, 08:30

Prediction: Northern Tigers vs Blacktown Spartans

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Northern Tigers1.67

Blacktown Spartans1.63

1X2

39% 24% 37%

Northern Tigers Draw Blacktown Spartans

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Northern Tigers 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLWWDW

Blacktown Spartans 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Northern Tigers 1–1–4 Blacktown Spartans (6 last)

Blacktown Spartans3-2Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers1-4Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans1-3Northern Tigers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Northern Tigers 1525 · Blacktown Spartans 1596

	Northern Tigers	Draw	Blacktown Spartans
Our model	38%	25%	37%
Market	39%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blacktown Spartans (rating 1525 vs 1596).
H2H favours Blacktown Spartans: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Northern Tigers	Blacktown Spartans
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	2.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.4	3.4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.75

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +7’	2.30	3.75	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Northern Tigers 1–1–4 Blacktown Spartans

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Australia New South Wales League 1	Blacktown Spartans	3-2 HT 1-2	Northern Tigers
26/07/25 Australia New South Wales League 1	Northern Tigers	1-4 HT 1-2	Blacktown Spartans
11/04/25 Australia New South Wales League 1	Blacktown Spartans	1-3 HT 1-2	Northern Tigers
20/07/24 Australia New South Wales League 1	Blacktown Spartans	2-0 HT 0-0	Northern Tigers
13/04/24 Australia New South Wales League 1	Northern Tigers	0-1 HT 0-1	Blacktown Spartans
20/05/23 Australia New South Wales League 1	Blacktown Spartans	2-2 HT 0-1	Northern Tigers

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blacktown Spartans	24	16	5	3	60	31	53
2	Northern Tigers	24	13	7	4	43	22	46
3	Bankstown City Lions FC	24	13	4	7	45	37	43
4	Macarthur Rams	24	12	6	6	32	25	42
5	Canterbury Bankstown FC	24	12	5	7	57	39	41
6	Rydalmere Lions FC	24	10	7	7	37	34	37
7	Hills United FC	24	10	6	8	42	39	36
8	Bulls FC Academy	24	10	3	11	44	39	33
9	Hakoah Sydney City East	24	7	9	8	41	40	30
10	Hurstville FC	24	8	6	10	37	39	30
11	Central Coast Mariners U21	24	7	6	11	40	47	27
12	Inter Lions	24	7	4	13	29	46	25
13	Newcastle Jets NPL	24	5	8	11	45	55	23
14	Dulwich Hill	24	5	8	11	27	47	23
15	Western City Rangers	24	5	4	15	29	48	19
16	Prospect United	24	2	12	10	23	43	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Northern Tigers	Blacktown Spartans
Central Coast Mariners U21	2-1 W	2-0 W
Newcastle Jets NPL	2-2 D	7-2 W
Hills United FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Dulwich Hill	3-1 W	1-1 D
Hakoah Sydney City East	0-1 L	1-2 L
Bankstown City Lions FC	1-1 D	4-1 W
Canterbury Bankstown FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Western City Rangers	1-1 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Blacktown Spartans (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Northern Tigers

DLWDWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
11/07	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	2-2	8	5	D
04/07	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
27/06	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	3-1	8	1	W
20/06	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
13/06	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
06/06	Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
31/05	Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
23/05	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-2	11	2	L
16/05	Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-1	11	1	D

Blacktown Spartans

WDWLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
12/07	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
04/07	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	7-2	–	–	W
26/06	Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	3-1	6	3	W
20/06	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
12/06	Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	4-1	4	1	W
06/06	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
29/05	Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1	4-0	4-1	6	1	W
23/05	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
15/05	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	2-1	3-2	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Northern Tigers vs Blacktown Spartans?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Northern Tigers win (39%). Probabilities: Northern Tigers 39%, draw 24%, Blacktown Spartans 37%.

How many goals are expected in Northern Tigers vs Blacktown Spartans?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Northern Tigers 1.67 · Blacktown Spartans 1.63), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Northern Tigers vs Blacktown Spartans?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.