Football · Australia New South Wales League 1 · 21/08, 12:15

Prediction: Blacktown Spartans vs Hurstville FC

Team pages: Blacktown Spartans · Hurstville FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Blacktown Spartans2.24

Hurstville FC1.19

1X2

61% 20% 19%

Blacktown Spartans Draw Hurstville FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Blacktown Spartans 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWWWW

Hurstville FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWWLLL

Head-to-head

Blacktown Spartans 0–1–0 Hurstville FC (1 last)

Hurstville FC2-2Blacktown Spartans

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blacktown Spartans 1623 · Hurstville FC 1471

	Blacktown Spartans	Draw	Hurstville FC
Our model	60%	21%	18%
Market	61%	19%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blacktown Spartans (rating 1623 vs 1471).
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blacktown Spartans	Hurstville FC
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.7	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.5	1.8 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.75

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.45▲	Bet365 1.45
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.25 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
07:07 +37’	1.40	4.75	5.25
09:24 +9’	1.45▲	4.75	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blacktown Spartans 0–1–0 Hurstville FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Australia New South Wales League 1	Hurstville FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Blacktown Spartans

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blacktown Spartans	28	20	5	3	71	32	65
2	Northern Tigers	28	15	8	5	49	28	53
3	Bankstown City Lions FC	28	15	5	8	51	42	50
4	Macarthur Rams	28	14	6	8	36	30	48
5	Canterbury Bankstown FC	28	13	6	9	65	51	45
6	Hills United FC	28	12	7	9	51	44	43
7	Hakoah Sydney City East	28	10	9	9	57	46	39
8	Rydalmere Lions FC	28	10	8	10	39	41	38
9	Bulls FC Academy	28	11	4	13	50	45	37
10	Hurstville FC	28	9	6	13	40	46	33
11	Inter Lions	28	9	5	14	36	52	32
12	Central Coast Mariners U21	28	8	7	13	44	55	31
13	Dulwich Hill	28	7	9	12	38	53	30
14	Newcastle Jets NPL	28	6	10	12	50	61	28
15	Prospect United	28	3	14	11	29	47	23
16	Western City Rangers	28	5	5	18	31	64	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blacktown Spartans	Hurstville FC
Macarthur Rams	2-0 W	2-1 W
Northern Tigers	3-0 W	1-3 L
Canterbury Bankstown FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Central Coast Mariners U21	2-0 W	0-1 L
Dulwich Hill	1-1 D	3-1 W
Bankstown City Lions FC	4-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Blacktown Spartans (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Blacktown Spartans

WDWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
07/08	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	3-0	4-0	8	0	W
31/07	Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
25/07	Northern Tigers Australia New South Wales League 1	3-0	3-0	4	1	W
18/07	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
12/07	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
04/07	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	7-2	–	–	W
26/06	Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	3-1	6	3	W
20/06	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-1	11	2	D
12/06	Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	4-1	4	1	W

Hurstville FC

DLWLDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
01/08	Northern Tigers Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	1-3	9	2	L
25/07	Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	2-1	6	8	W
17/07	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	3-1	9	4	W
11/07	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
03/07	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
27/06	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/06	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
13/06	Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-1	10	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blacktown Spartans vs Hurstville FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Blacktown Spartans win (61%). Probabilities: Blacktown Spartans 61%, draw 20%, Hurstville FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Blacktown Spartans vs Hurstville FC?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Blacktown Spartans 2.24 · Hurstville FC 1.19), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Blacktown Spartans vs Hurstville FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.