Football · Australia New South Wales League 1 · 22/08, 08:30

Prediction: Northern Tigers vs Macarthur Rams

Team pages: Northern Tigers · Macarthur Rams

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Northern Tigers1.73

Macarthur Rams1.12

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Northern Tigers Draw Macarthur Rams

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Northern Tigers 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWLWWD

Macarthur Rams 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWLWWL

Head-to-head

Northern Tigers 3–1–2 Macarthur Rams (6 last)

Macarthur Rams2-2Northern Tigers
Macarthur Rams1-4Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers3-0Macarthur Rams
Northern Tigers2-3Macarthur Rams
Macarthur Rams2-1Northern Tigers
Macarthur Rams0-1Northern Tigers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Northern Tigers 1547 · Macarthur Rams 1519

	Northern Tigers	Draw	Macarthur Rams
Our model	50%	26%	24%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Northern Tigers: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Northern Tigers	Macarthur Rams
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	2.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
07:50 +5’	1.73	3.80	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Northern Tigers 3–1–2 Macarthur Rams

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Australia New South Wales League 1	Macarthur Rams	2-2 HT 1-0	Northern Tigers
05/07/25 Australia New South Wales League 1	Macarthur Rams	1-4 HT 0-3	Northern Tigers
22/03/25 Australia New South Wales League 1	Northern Tigers	3-0 HT 0-0	Macarthur Rams
03/08/24 Australia New South Wales League 1	Northern Tigers	2-3 HT 1-1	Macarthur Rams
27/04/24 Australia New South Wales League 1	Macarthur Rams	2-1 HT 2-1	Northern Tigers
15/08/23 Australia New South Wales League 1	Macarthur Rams	0-1 HT 0-1	Northern Tigers

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blacktown Spartans	28	20	5	3	71	32	65
2	Northern Tigers	28	15	8	5	49	28	53
3	Bankstown City Lions FC	28	15	5	8	51	42	50
4	Macarthur Rams	28	14	6	8	36	30	48
5	Canterbury Bankstown FC	28	13	6	9	65	51	45
6	Hills United FC	28	12	7	9	51	44	43
7	Hakoah Sydney City East	28	10	9	9	57	46	39
8	Rydalmere Lions FC	28	10	8	10	39	41	38
9	Bulls FC Academy	28	11	4	13	50	45	37
10	Hurstville FC	28	9	6	13	40	46	33
11	Inter Lions	28	9	5	14	36	52	32
12	Central Coast Mariners U21	28	8	7	13	44	55	31
13	Dulwich Hill	28	7	9	12	38	53	30
14	Newcastle Jets NPL	28	6	10	12	50	61	28
15	Prospect United	28	3	14	11	29	47	23
16	Western City Rangers	28	5	5	18	31	64	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Northern Tigers	Macarthur Rams
Bulls FC Academy	1-1 D	1-0 W
Hurstville FC	3-1 W	1-2 L
Blacktown Spartans	0-3 L	0-2 L
Newcastle Jets NPL	2-2 D	1-0 W
Hills United FC	2-1 W	2-3 L
Dulwich Hill	3-1 W	2-1 W
Hakoah Sydney City East	0-1 L	1-1 D
Inter Lions	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Macarthur Rams (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Northern Tigers

WLWWDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
08/08	Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
01/08	Hurstville FC Australia New South Wales League 1	2-1	3-1	8	2	W
25/07	Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1	0-3	0-3	7	1	L
19/07	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
11/07	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	2-2	8	5	D
04/07	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
27/06	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	3-1	8	1	W
20/06	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
13/06	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-0	8	5	W

Macarthur Rams

LWDWDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
08/08	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
01/08	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/07	Hurstville FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-2	7	8	L
17/07	Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
10/07	Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
04/07	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	3-2	4	4	W
27/06	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
13/06	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Northern Tigers vs Macarthur Rams?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Northern Tigers win (51%). Probabilities: Northern Tigers 51%, draw 25%, Macarthur Rams 24%.

How many goals are expected in Northern Tigers vs Macarthur Rams?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Northern Tigers 1.73 · Macarthur Rams 1.12), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Northern Tigers vs Macarthur Rams?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.