Football · Sweden Elitettan · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: IFK Goteborg (W) vs Elfsborg (W)

Team pages: IFK Goteborg (W) · Elfsborg (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

IFK Goteborg (W)1.58

Elfsborg (W)1.48

1X2

40% 25% 35%

IFK Goteborg (W) Draw Elfsborg (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Goteborg (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWWDL

Elfsborg (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWLWDWW

Head-to-head

IFK Goteborg (W) 1–1–1 Elfsborg (W) (3 last)

Elfsborg (W)1-1IFK Goteborg (W)
Elfsborg (W)2-3IFK Goteborg (W)
Elfsborg (W)5-1IFK Goteborg (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Goteborg (W) 1573 · Elfsborg (W) 1559

	IFK Goteborg (W)	Draw	Elfsborg (W)
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 14.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Goteborg (W)	Elfsborg (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.4	2.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.6	4.7 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:39 +2’	2.25	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Goteborg (W) 1–1–1 Elfsborg (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Sweden Elitettan	Elfsborg (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	IFK Goteborg (W)
07/02/26 Women’s Friendly	Elfsborg (W)	2-3 HT 2-1	IFK Goteborg (W)
05/03/25 Women’s Friendly	Elfsborg (W)	5-1 HT 3-0	IFK Goteborg (W)

Standings · Sweden Elitettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Elfsborg (W)	19	13	5	1	36	9	44
2	Linköpings FC (W)	19	13	3	3	38	24	42
3	IFK Goteborg (W)	19	12	5	2	49	22	41
4	KIF Orebro (W)	19	13	2	4	41	24	41
5	Umea IK (W)	19	9	4	6	33	23	31
6	Trelleborgs FF (W)	19	8	5	6	27	27	29
7	Husqvarna FF (W)	19	7	4	8	27	30	25
8	Jitex BK (W)	19	6	5	8	24	27	23
9	Orebro SK (W)	19	5	5	9	21	30	20
10	Alingsås IF (W)	19	4	7	8	17	26	19
11	Enskede IK (W)	19	5	4	10	26	36	19
12	Gamla Upsala SK (W)	19	4	5	10	21	32	17
13	Sandvikens IF (W)	19	2	5	12	19	47	11
14	BK Hacken (W) II	19	2	1	16	18	40	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Goteborg (W)	Elfsborg (W)
KIF Orebro (W)	1-5 L	0-2 L
Husqvarna FF (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Linköpings FC (W)	4-1 W	3-2 W
Trelleborgs FF (W)	4-0 W	0-0 D
Sandvikens IF (W)	6-0 W	1-0 W
Umea IK (W)	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Goteborg (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Goteborg (W)

WDDWWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-4	1-5	6	1	L
12/09	Jitex BK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
05/09	Husqvarna FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-1	2-1	9	0	W
29/08	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
22/08	Trelleborgs FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
15/08	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	6-0	6	1	W
08/08	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
01/08	Umea IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/07	Husqvarna FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-2	4-4	11	1	D
21/06	Trelleborgs FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	3-0	3-1	4	3	W

Elfsborg (W)

DWDWWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
12/09	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-2	3-2	–	–	W
06/09	Umea IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	BK Hacken (W) II Sweden Elitettan	2-0	2-1	14	1	W
21/08	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
15/08	Enskede IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	3-0	5-0	6	1	W
08/08	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
01/08	Trelleborgs FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/07	Umea IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	4-1	4	4	W
18/06	Husqvarna FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	1-1	14	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Goteborg (W) vs Elfsborg (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Goteborg (W) win (40%). Probabilities: IFK Goteborg (W) 40%, draw 25%, Elfsborg (W) 35%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Goteborg (W) vs Elfsborg (W)?

The model expects 3.06 goals (IFK Goteborg (W) 1.58 · Elfsborg (W) 1.48), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg (W) vs Elfsborg (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.