Football · Sweden Elitettan · 03/10, 14:00

Prediction: Trelleborgs FF (W) vs Elfsborg (W)

Team pages: Trelleborgs FF (W) · Elfsborg (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Trelleborgs FF (W)1.04

Elfsborg (W)1.74

1X2

22% 24% 53%

Trelleborgs FF (W) Draw Elfsborg (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Trelleborgs FF (W) 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWLLDDWW

Elfsborg (W) 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWDWWD

Head-to-head

Trelleborgs FF (W) 1–2–0 Elfsborg (W) (3 last)

Elfsborg (W)0-0Trelleborgs FF (W)
Elfsborg (W)2-2Trelleborgs FF (W)
Trelleborgs FF (W)3-1Elfsborg (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Trelleborgs FF (W) 1511 · Elfsborg (W) 1570

	Trelleborgs FF (W)	Draw	Elfsborg (W)
Our model	22%	26%	52%
Market	23%	23%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elfsborg (W) (rating 1511 vs 1570).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Trelleborgs FF (W)	Elfsborg (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	2.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	3.8 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.5 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.90

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:06 +19’	3.90	3.90	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Trelleborgs FF (W) 1–2–0 Elfsborg (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Sweden Elitettan	Elfsborg (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Trelleborgs FF (W)
30/08/25 Sweden Elitettan	Elfsborg (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Trelleborgs FF (W)
04/05/25 Sweden Elitettan	Trelleborgs FF (W)	3-1 HT 0-0	Elfsborg (W)

Standings · Sweden Elitettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Elfsborg (W)	20	13	6	1	37	10	45
2	KIF Orebro (W)	20	14	2	4	43	25	44
3	IFK Goteborg (W)	20	12	6	2	50	23	42
4	Linköpings FC (W)	20	13	3	4	38	26	42
5	Umea IK (W)	20	10	4	6	35	24	34
6	Trelleborgs FF (W)	20	9	5	6	28	27	32
7	Husqvarna FF (W)	20	8	4	8	28	30	28
8	Jitex BK (W)	20	6	6	8	26	29	24
9	Orebro SK (W)	20	6	5	9	23	30	23
10	Alingsås IF (W)	20	4	7	9	17	27	19
11	Enskede IK (W)	20	5	4	11	27	38	19
12	Gamla Upsala SK (W)	20	4	5	11	21	33	17
13	Sandvikens IF (W)	20	2	5	13	20	49	11
14	BK Hacken (W) II	20	2	2	16	20	42	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Trelleborgs FF (W)	Elfsborg (W)
BK Hacken (W) II	2-0 W	2-1 W
Sandvikens IF (W)	0-0 D	1-0 W
KIF Orebro (W)	2-2 D	0-2 L
IFK Goteborg (W)	0-4 L	1-1 D
Linköpings FC (W)	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Elfsborg (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Trelleborgs FF (W)

DDDWLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Alingsås IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
19/09	BK Hacken (W) II Sweden Elitettan	0-0	2-0	4	0	W
13/09	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
05/09	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	Husqvarna FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	IFK Goteborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
16/08	Gamla Upsala SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Gamla Upsala SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-3	4-4	–	–	D
01/08	Elfsborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/07	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-1	2	1	D

Elfsborg (W)

WDWWLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	IFK Goteborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
19/09	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
12/09	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-2	3-2	–	–	W
06/09	Umea IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	BK Hacken (W) II Sweden Elitettan	2-0	2-1	14	1	W
21/08	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
15/08	Enskede IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	3-0	5-0	6	1	W
08/08	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
01/08	Trelleborgs FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/07	Umea IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	4-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Trelleborgs FF (W) vs Elfsborg (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Elfsborg (W) win (53%). Probabilities: Trelleborgs FF (W) 22%, draw 24%, Elfsborg (W) 53%.

How many goals are expected in Trelleborgs FF (W) vs Elfsborg (W)?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Trelleborgs FF (W) 1.04 · Elfsborg (W) 1.74), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Trelleborgs FF (W) vs Elfsborg (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.