Football · Sweden Elitettan · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Alingsås IF (W) vs Trelleborgs FF (W)

Team pages: Alingsås IF (W) · Trelleborgs FF (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Alingsås IF (W)1.14

Trelleborgs FF (W)1.64

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Alingsås IF (W) Draw Trelleborgs FF (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Alingsås IF (W) 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDDLWDLWD

Trelleborgs FF (W) 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDDWLLDDW

Head-to-head

Alingsås IF (W) 0–3 Trelleborgs FF (W) (3 last)

Trelleborgs FF (W)1-0Alingsås IF (W)
Trelleborgs FF (W)3-1Alingsås IF (W)
Alingsås IF (W)1-3Trelleborgs FF (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alingsås IF (W) 1503 · Trelleborgs FF (W) 1498

	Alingsås IF (W)	Draw	Trelleborgs FF (W)
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	27%	23%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Trelleborgs FF (W): 3-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alingsås IF (W)	Trelleborgs FF (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.8	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.5 / 0.3	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.90

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:39 +10’	3.30	3.90	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alingsås IF (W) 0–0–3 Trelleborgs FF (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Sweden Elitettan	Trelleborgs FF (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Alingsås IF (W)
13/08/23 Sweden Elitettan	Trelleborgs FF (W)	3-1 HT 1-1	Alingsås IF (W)
18/06/23 Sweden Elitettan	Alingsås IF (W)	1-3 HT 1-1	Trelleborgs FF (W)

Standings · Sweden Elitettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Elfsborg (W)	19	13	5	1	36	9	44
2	Linköpings FC (W)	19	13	3	3	38	24	42
3	IFK Goteborg (W)	19	12	5	2	49	22	41
4	KIF Orebro (W)	19	13	2	4	41	24	41
5	Umea IK (W)	19	9	4	6	33	23	31
6	Trelleborgs FF (W)	19	8	5	6	27	27	29
7	Husqvarna FF (W)	19	7	4	8	27	30	25
8	Jitex BK (W)	19	6	5	8	24	27	23
9	Orebro SK (W)	19	5	5	9	21	30	20
10	Alingsås IF (W)	19	4	7	8	17	26	19
11	Enskede IK (W)	19	5	4	10	26	36	19
12	Gamla Upsala SK (W)	19	4	5	10	21	32	17
13	Sandvikens IF (W)	19	2	5	12	19	47	11
14	BK Hacken (W) II	19	2	1	16	18	40	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alingsås IF (W)	Trelleborgs FF (W)
Gamla Upsala SK (W)	1-1 D	1-0 W
Linköpings FC (W)	1-2 L	1-1 D
Husqvarna FF (W)	0-1 L	0-1 L
Sandvikens IF (W)	3-3 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Trelleborgs FF (W) (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alingsås IF (W)

LDDDLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Gamla Upsala SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-1	10	1	D
12/09	Enskede IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
05/09	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Orebro SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Jitex BK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	2-1	1	0	W
15/08	Husqvarna FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Orebro SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
01/08	Enskede IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
25/07	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-2	3-3	–	–	D
18/06	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-4	–	–	L

Trelleborgs FF (W)

LDDDWLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	BK Hacken (W) II Sweden Elitettan	0-0	2-0	4	0	W
13/09	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
05/09	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	Husqvarna FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	IFK Goteborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
16/08	Gamla Upsala SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Gamla Upsala SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-3	4-4	–	–	D
01/08	Elfsborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/07	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
21/06	IFK Goteborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-3	1-3	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alingsås IF (W) vs Trelleborgs FF (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Trelleborgs FF (W) win (49%). Probabilities: Alingsås IF (W) 26%, draw 25%, Trelleborgs FF (W) 49%.

How many goals are expected in Alingsås IF (W) vs Trelleborgs FF (W)?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Alingsås IF (W) 1.14 · Trelleborgs FF (W) 1.64), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alingsås IF (W) vs Trelleborgs FF (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.