Football · USA USL League One · 16/08, 01:00

Prediction: New York Cosmos vs Antelope Valley Alta

Team pages: New York Cosmos · Antelope Valley Alta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

New York Cosmos1.37

Antelope Valley Alta1.42

1X2

36% 26% 38%

New York Cosmos Draw Antelope Valley Alta

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

New York Cosmos 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDDLLL

Antelope Valley Alta 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWLWDLLW

Head-to-head

New York Cosmos 0–1 Antelope Valley Alta (1 last)

Antelope Valley Alta4-0New York Cosmos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Cosmos 1399 · Antelope Valley Alta 1523

	New York Cosmos	Draw	Antelope Valley Alta
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	36%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Antelope Valley Alta (rating 1399 vs 1523).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Cosmos	Antelope Valley Alta
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.60

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.45▼	Pinn 2.58 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	2.35 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.36

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:27 +6’	2.50	3.60	2.35
17:48 +2’	2.45▼	3.70▲	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:29 +4’	2.59	3.52	2.38
03:06 +1’	2.56▼	3.65▲	2.34▼
09:04 +2’	2.54▼	3.67▲	2.32▼
17:29 +21’	2.58▲	3.57▼	2.36▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Cosmos 0–0–1 Antelope Valley Alta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA USL League One	Antelope Valley Alta	4-0 HT 2-0	New York Cosmos

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	20	13	2	5	34	22	41
2	Charlotte Independence	19	12	3	4	43	27	39
3	Forward Madison FC	19	11	3	5	38	20	36
4	One Knoxville SC	19	11	3	5	33	21	36
5	AC Boise	21	10	4	7	31	29	34
6	Spokane Velocity FC	18	10	2	6	25	22	32
7	Antelope Valley Alta	22	8	8	6	32	26	32
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	17	9	1	7	31	25	28
9	Fort Wayne FC	19	7	6	6	25	22	27
10	Corpus Christi FC	20	6	8	6	23	26	26
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	19	5	6	8	29	33	21
12	FC Naples	19	6	2	11	21	31	20
13	Westchester SC	19	5	4	10	28	27	19
14	Greenville Triumph SC	19	5	4	10	21	32	19
15	Sarasota Paradise	19	5	3	11	18	30	18
16	Richmond Kickers	19	5	3	11	18	35	18
17	New York Cosmos	18	3	2	13	18	40	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Cosmos	Antelope Valley Alta
Richmond Kickers	0-2 L	2-3 L
Westchester SC	0-3 L	0-0 D
Corpus Christi FC	0-0 D	0-0 D
FC Naples	1-0 W	1-2 L
One Knoxville SC	1-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Antelope Valley Alta (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

New York Cosmos

LLLLWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
26/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
23/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
19/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
12/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
05/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	12	4	L
21/06	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
14/06	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
07/06	Hartford Athletic USA USL Cup	0-3	1-4	3	8	L

Antelope Valley Alta

DLDWLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
06/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	9	8	L
02/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	5	8	L
26/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	5	0	W
16/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
12/07	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Cup	2-0	2-1	6	8	W
06/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
02/07	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-3	0	3	L
25/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Cosmos vs Antelope Valley Alta?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Antelope Valley Alta win (38%). Probabilities: New York Cosmos 36%, draw 26%, Antelope Valley Alta 38%.

How many goals are expected in New York Cosmos vs Antelope Valley Alta?

The model expects 2.8 goals (New York Cosmos 1.37 · Antelope Valley Alta 1.42), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Cosmos vs Antelope Valley Alta?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.