Football · USA USL League One · 16/08, 01:00

Prediction: Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise

Team pages: Charlotte Independence · Sarasota Paradise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Charlotte Independence2.06

Sarasota Paradise1.35

1X2

53% 23% 24%

Charlotte Independence Draw Sarasota Paradise

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Charlotte Independence 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Sarasota Paradise 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlotte Independence 1527 · Sarasota Paradise 1489

	Charlotte Independence	Draw	Sarasota Paradise
Our model	53%	23%	24%
Market	53%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlotte Independence	Sarasota Paradise
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.80

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.82 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.83
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:27 +6’	1.70	3.80	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:29 +4’	1.82	3.83	3.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	20	13	2	5	34	22	41
2	Charlotte Independence	19	12	3	4	43	27	39
3	Forward Madison FC	19	11	3	5	38	20	36
4	One Knoxville SC	19	11	3	5	33	21	36
5	AC Boise	21	10	4	7	31	29	34
6	Spokane Velocity FC	18	10	2	6	25	22	32
7	Antelope Valley Alta	22	8	8	6	32	26	32
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	17	9	1	7	31	25	28
9	Fort Wayne FC	19	7	6	6	25	22	27
10	Corpus Christi FC	20	6	8	6	23	26	26
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	19	5	6	8	29	33	21
12	FC Naples	19	6	2	11	21	31	20
13	Westchester SC	19	5	4	10	28	27	19
14	Greenville Triumph SC	19	5	4	10	21	32	19
15	Sarasota Paradise	19	5	3	11	18	30	18
16	Richmond Kickers	19	5	3	11	18	35	18
17	New York Cosmos	18	3	2	13	18	40	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlotte Independence	Sarasota Paradise
Greenville Triumph SC	1-0 W	0-0 D
One Knoxville SC	3-1 W	1-2 L
Richmond Kickers	3-1 W	0-0 D
Antelope Valley Alta	1-1 D	1-3 L
Corpus Christi FC	2-1 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Charlotte Independence

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Cup	0-2	2-4	3	5	L
09/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	9	9	W
02/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
26/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	6	0	W
23/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-3	4	3	L
19/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	2-4	5	3	L
12/07	Charleston Battery USA USL Cup	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
06/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	8	5	W
25/06	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

Sarasota Paradise

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	14	2	L
12/07	Miami FC USA USL Cup	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
09/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
21/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
14/06	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
11/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
07/06	FC Naples USA USL Cup	1-0	2-0	0	8	W
31/05	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
28/05	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	0	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte Independence win (53%). Probabilities: Charlotte Independence 53%, draw 23%, Sarasota Paradise 24%.

How many goals are expected in Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Charlotte Independence 2.06 · Sarasota Paradise 1.35), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.