Football · USA USL League One · 23/07, 01:00

Prediction: Portland Hearts of Pine vs Union Omaha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Portland Hearts of Pine1.58

Union Omaha1.76

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Portland Hearts of Pine Draw Union Omaha

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Hearts of Pine 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLWWDL

Union Omaha 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLLWLD

Head-to-head

Portland Hearts of Pine 1–2–1 Union Omaha (4 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Hearts of Pine 1473 · Union Omaha 1513

	Portland Hearts of Pine	Draw	Union Omaha
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Omaha (rating 1473 vs 1513).
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Hearts of Pine	Union Omaha
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.3	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 4.8	2.8 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3.75

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.93 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:00 +7’	2.70	3.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:05 +1’	2.82	3.37	2.27
16:04	2.93▲	3.39▲	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Hearts of Pine 1–2–1 Union Omaha

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	2-2 HT 0-2	Portland Hearts of Pine
01/10/25 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	1-0 HT 0-0	Portland Hearts of Pine
16/06/25 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	3-1 HT 0-1	Union Omaha
11/05/25 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	2-2 HT 0-1	Portland Hearts of Pine

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	One Knoxville SC	16	10	3	3	30	16	33
2	Union Omaha	17	10	2	5	27	20	32
3	Charlotte Independence	15	9	3	3	36	22	30
4	Antelope Valley Alta	18	7	7	4	26	21	28
5	AC Boise	17	8	3	6	25	24	27
6	Fort Wayne FC	16	7	6	3	24	14	27
7	Forward Madison FC	14	8	2	4	26	14	26
8	Spokane Velocity FC	16	8	2	6	19	21	26
9	Chattanooga Red Wolves	14	8	1	5	27	17	25
10	Portland Hearts of Pine	16	5	5	6	25	26	20
11	Corpus Christi FC	17	4	7	6	20	26	19
12	Sarasota Paradise	18	5	3	10	17	28	18
13	FC Naples	17	5	2	10	18	27	17
14	Westchester SC	16	4	3	9	25	25	15
15	Greenville Triumph SC	14	4	2	8	14	24	14
16	Richmond Kickers	16	3	3	10	12	30	12
17	New York Cosmos	15	3	2	10	17	33	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Hearts of Pine	Union Omaha
AC Boise	1-2 L	0-1 L
New York Cosmos	1-1 D	2-1 W
FC Naples	3-2 W	2-1 W
Westchester SC	1-5 L	2-2 D
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Union Omaha (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Portland Hearts of Pine

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
12/07	New York Cosmos USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
04/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	3-2	7	1	W
25/06	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-1	5-1	3	5	W
20/06	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-2	1-5	4	3	L
14/06	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
07/06	Brooklyn FC USA USL Cup	1-3	1-5	0	3	L
04/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-3	7	8	L
31/05	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
24/05	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	2	6	D

Union Omaha

WWWWLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
12/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL Cup	1-2	3-4	6	7	L
02/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	3-1	12	3	W
21/06	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
14/06	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	7	6	L
11/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
07/06	Fort Wayne FC USA USL Cup	2-2	4-2	4	3	W
31/05	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
28/05	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	7	6	W
24/05	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Union Omaha?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Omaha win (41%). Probabilities: Portland Hearts of Pine 34%, draw 25%, Union Omaha 41%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Union Omaha?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Portland Hearts of Pine 1.58 · Union Omaha 1.76), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Union Omaha?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.