Prediction: Antelope Valley Alta vs Charlotte Independence
Expected goals: 3.04 (Antelope Valley Alta 1.37 · Charlotte Independence 1.66). The model gives 31% home, 25% draw, 44% away. Under 3 goals (52%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Antelope Valley Alta with 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Charlotte Independence has piled up 9-1-0 in the same span. In the last 2 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for Antelope Valley Alta and 1 for Charlotte Independence.
| Antelope Valley Alta | Draw | Charlotte Independence | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Market | 31% | 25% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1537 vs 1609).
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Antelope Valley Alta | Charlotte Independence | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 2.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.5 / 1.7 | 2.8 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Antelope Valley Alta 1–0–1 Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/25 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Antelope Valley Alta |
| 25/05/25 USA USL League One | Antelope Valley Alta | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Charlotte Independence |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | One Knoxville SC | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Charlotte Independence | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 17 | 29 |
| 4 | Antelope Valley Alta | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 24 |
| 5 | Forward Madison FC | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity FC | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 18 | 23 |
| 7 | AC Boise | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | 21 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne FC | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 21 |
| 9 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 20 |
| 10 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 13 | 19 |
| 11 | FC Naples | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 18 | 26 | 17 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 17 |
| 13 | Corpus Christi FC | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 15 |
| 14 | Westchester SC | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 14 |
| 15 | Richmond Kickers | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 12 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph SC | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 10 |
| 17 | New York Cosmos | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Antelope Valley Alta | Charlotte Independence |
|---|---|---|
| Union Omaha | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Corpus Christi FC | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Greenville Triumph SC | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Antelope Valley Alta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 21/06 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/06 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Orange County SC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 28/05 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
2-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
1-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/05 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Antelope Valley Alta vs Charlotte Independence?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Charlotte Independence win (44%). Probabilities: Antelope Valley Alta 31%, draw 25%, Charlotte Independence 44%.
How many goals are expected in Antelope Valley Alta vs Charlotte Independence?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Antelope Valley Alta 1.37 · Charlotte Independence 1.66), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Antelope Valley Alta vs Charlotte Independence?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.