Prediction: New York Cosmos vs Greenville Triumph SC
Expected goals: 3.08 (New York Cosmos 1.4 · Greenville Triumph SC 1.68). The model gives 31% home, 26% draw, 43% away. Over 2.75 goals (51%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves New York Cosmos with 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 losses over 10 games; Greenville Triumph SC has piled up 2-1-7 in the same span. In their only recent head-to-head meeting the record reads 0 wins for New York Cosmos and 1 for Greenville Triumph SC.
| New York Cosmos | Draw | Greenville Triumph SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Market | 31% | 26% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Greenville Triumph SC (rating 1402 vs 1448).
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New York Cosmos | Greenville Triumph SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.8 | 0.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 1.6 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.8 | 1.8 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Cosmos 0–0–1 Greenville Triumph SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/26 USA USL League One | Greenville Triumph SC | 3-2 HT 1-1 | New York Cosmos |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | One Knoxville SC | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Charlotte Independence | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 17 | 29 |
| 4 | Antelope Valley Alta | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 17 | 24 |
| 5 | Forward Madison FC | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity FC | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 18 | 23 |
| 7 | AC Boise | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 23 | 21 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne FC | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 21 |
| 9 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 13 | 19 |
| 10 | FC Naples | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 17 |
| 11 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 22 | 17 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 16 |
| 13 | Corpus Christi FC | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 15 |
| 14 | Westchester SC | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 22 | 14 |
| 15 | Richmond Kickers | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 11 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph SC | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 10 |
| 17 | New York Cosmos | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New York Cosmos | Greenville Triumph SC |
|---|---|---|
| Forward Madison FC | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| One Knoxville SC | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Union Omaha | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Antelope Valley Alta | 0-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Westchester SC | 3-2 W | 0-4 L |
| Portland Hearts of Pine | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Greenville Triumph SC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New York Cosmos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Cup |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Westchester SC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Cup |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 19/04 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
Greenville Triumph SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Charlotte Independence USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 15/06 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-3 | 0-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 11/06 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New York Cosmos vs Greenville Triumph SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Greenville Triumph SC win (43%). Probabilities: New York Cosmos 31%, draw 26%, Greenville Triumph SC 43%.
How many goals are expected in New York Cosmos vs Greenville Triumph SC?
The model expects 3.08 goals (New York Cosmos 1.4 · Greenville Triumph SC 1.68), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in New York Cosmos vs Greenville Triumph SC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.