Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington SC
Expected goals: 2.68 (Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.77 · Lexington SC 0.92). The model gives 57% home, 25% draw, 19% away. Under 2.75 goals (53%) and both teams to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Tampa Bay Rowdies sits at 7-2-1 (W-D-L), while Lexington SC arrives on a 4-3-3 run. In their only recent head-to-head meeting, Tampa Bay Rowdies won 0 and Lexington SC 0, with 1 draw.
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | Draw | Lexington SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 25% | 18% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (rating 1579 vs 1521).
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | Lexington SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.5 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6 | 1.9 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampa Bay Rowdies 0–1–0 Lexington SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/25 USA USL Championship | Lexington SC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Oakland Roots | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 21 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | New Mexico United | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 18 |
| 6 | Phoenix Rising FC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 17 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 16 |
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 16 |
| 9 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 16 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 23 | 15 |
| 11 | Lexington SC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 14 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Lexington SC |
|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island FC | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Indy Eleven | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Tampa Bay Rowdies (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tampa Bay Rowdies
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 15 | 2 | L |
| 11/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Sporting JAX USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 21/05 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 11 | W |
| 17/05 | Miami FC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Lexington SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Indy Eleven USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Detroit City FC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 31/05 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 26/04 | Forward Madison FC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 12/04 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tampa Bay Rowdies win (57%). Probabilities: Tampa Bay Rowdies 57%, draw 25%, Lexington SC 19%.
How many goals are expected in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington SC?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.77 · Lexington SC 0.92), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington SC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.