BetsTalentBetsTalent
ES EN
Log in Sign up Telegram
Football · USA USL Championship · 05/07, 00:00

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington SC

Expected goals: 2.8 (Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.84 · Lexington SC 0.97). The model gives 57% home, 24% draw, 19% away. Over 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.

57%1
57% 24% 19%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1579 · Lexington SC 1522
Tampa Bay RowdiesDrawLexington SC
Our model57%25%18%
Market57%24%19%
Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis
Expected goals2.8Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.84 · Lexington SC 0.97
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (rating 1579 vs 1522).
  • High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Tampa Bay RowdiesLexington SC
Goals for / against (FT)1.8 / 0.52.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)1.2 / 0.10.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)70/20/10%20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)3.3 / 61.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.4 / 04.1 / 0.4

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampa Bay Rowdies 0–1–0 Lexington SC

Swipe the table sideways →

DateHomeScoreAway
25/05/25
USA USL Championship
Lexington SC1-1
HT 1-0
Tampa Bay Rowdies

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Orange County SC 14752 221526
2 San Antonio FC 14662 201724
3 Oakland Roots 14563 232021
4 Tulsa 13544 171619
5 New Mexico United 12534 131318
6 Phoenix Rising FC 14455 191917
7 El Paso Locomotive FC 13445 232316
8 Sacramento Republic 12444 131216
9 Colorado Switchbacks FC 13445 212116
10 Las Vegas Lights FC 13436 202315
11 Lexington SC 12435 171515
12 Monterey Bay FC 14428 142214

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentTampa Bay RowdiesLexington SC
Rhode Island FC 1-1 D 1-3 L
Indy Eleven 1-0 W 6-7 L
Record vs common 1 W 1 D 0 L 0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tampa Bay Rowdies (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tampa Bay Rowdies

WDWWWWWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
21/06 Brooklyn FC
USA USL Championship
 2-0 2-0 33 W
14/06 Hartford Athletic
USA USL Championship
 0-1 0-1 152 L
11/06 Charleston Battery
USA USL Championship
 1-0 2-2 56 D
07/06 Sporting JAX
USA USL Cup
 2-0 2-0 44 W
31/05 Louisville City FC
USA USL Championship
 0-0 2-0 55 W
24/05 Phoenix Rising FC
USA USL Championship
 3-0 3-0 30 W
21/05 New Mexico United
USA USL Championship
 1-0 1-0 711 W
17/05 Miami FC
USA USL Cup
 2-0 4-1 64 W
10/05 Rhode Island FC
USA USL Championship
 1-0 1-1 67 D
03/05 Indy Eleven
USA USL Championship
 0-0 1-0 62 W

Lexington SC

LDWLWLWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
21/06 Indy Eleven
USA USL Cup
 0-0 6-7 104 L
14/06 San Antonio FC
USA USL Championship
 0-0 2-0 12 W
07/06 Detroit City FC
USA USL Cup
 0-1 4-2 38 W
31/05 El Paso Locomotive FC
USA USL Championship
 2-0 4-1 75 W
24/05 Indy Eleven
USA USL Championship
 0-1 1-3 66 L
09/05 Monterey Bay FC
USA USL Championship
 2-0 3-1 64 W
03/05 Las Vegas Lights FC
USA USL Championship
 1-2 1-2 28 L
26/04 Forward Madison FC
USA USL Cup
 1-1 4-2 52 W
19/04 Orange County SC
USA USL Championship
 0-0 0-0 64 D
12/04 Rhode Island FC
USA USL Championship
 0-2 1-3 92 L