Prediction: Las Vegas Lights FC vs El Paso Locomotive FC
Expected goals: 3.28 (Las Vegas Lights FC 1.55 · El Paso Locomotive FC 1.73). The model gives 33% home, 26% draw, 41% away. Over 2.75 goals (55%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Las Vegas Lights FC sits at 3-2-5 (W-D-L), while El Paso Locomotive FC arrives on a 2-3-5 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Las Vegas Lights FC and 4 for El Paso Locomotive FC.
| Las Vegas Lights FC | Draw | El Paso Locomotive FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours El Paso Locomotive FC: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Las Vegas Lights FC | El Paso Locomotive FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.2 | 2.1 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Las Vegas Lights FC 2–0–4 El Paso Locomotive FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 USA USL Championship | El Paso Locomotive FC | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 03/08/25 USA USL Championship | El Paso Locomotive FC | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 25/05/25 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | El Paso Locomotive FC |
| 13/07/24 USA USL Championship | El Paso Locomotive FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 24/03/24 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | El Paso Locomotive FC |
| 14/09/23 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | El Paso Locomotive FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Oakland Roots | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 21 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | New Mexico United | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 18 |
| 6 | Phoenix Rising FC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 17 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 16 |
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 16 |
| 9 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 16 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 23 | 15 |
| 11 | Lexington SC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 14 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Las Vegas Lights FC | El Paso Locomotive FC |
|---|---|---|
| Orange County SC | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Oakland Roots | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Tulsa | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| New Mexico United | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Lexington SC | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Las Vegas Lights FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 26/04 | AC Boise USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 23/04 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 4 | L |
El Paso Locomotive FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 14/06 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 11/06 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 28/05 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 07/05 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 30/04 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 11 | L |
| 26/04 | Orange County SC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Las Vegas Lights FC vs El Paso Locomotive FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an El Paso Locomotive FC win (41%). Probabilities: Las Vegas Lights FC 33%, draw 26%, El Paso Locomotive FC 41%.
How many goals are expected in Las Vegas Lights FC vs El Paso Locomotive FC?
The model expects 3.28 goals (Las Vegas Lights FC 1.55 · El Paso Locomotive FC 1.73), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Las Vegas Lights FC vs El Paso Locomotive FC?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.