Football · USA USL Championship · 30/07, 01:30
Prediction: Louisville City FC vs Birmingham Legion FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.14Total
Louisville City FC1.87
Birmingham Legion FC1.27
1X2
Louisville City FC
Draw
Birmingham Legion FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Louisville City FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Birmingham Legion FC
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Louisville City FC
3–2–1
Birmingham Legion FC
(6 last)
- Birmingham Legion FC1-1Louisville City FC
- Louisville City FC4-2Birmingham Legion FC
- Birmingham Legion FC1-1Louisville City FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Louisville City FC: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Louisville City FC | Birmingham Legion FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.5 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/90/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.8 / 6.8 | 3.5 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Louisville City FC 3–2–1 Birmingham Legion FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 USA USL Championship | Birmingham Legion FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Louisville City FC |
| 15/06/25 USA USL Championship | Louisville City FC | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Birmingham Legion FC |
| 16/03/25 USA USL Championship | Birmingham Legion FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Louisville City FC |
| 30/06/24 USA USL Championship | Birmingham Legion FC | 1-4 HT 0-0 | Louisville City FC |
| 30/03/24 USA USL Championship | Louisville City FC | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Birmingham Legion FC |
| 19/08/23 USA USL Championship | Birmingham Legion FC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Louisville City FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 32 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 22 | 27 |
| 3 | Detroit City FC | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Louisville City FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 24 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 18 | 23 |
| 6 | Miami FC | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 26 | 21 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 8 | Rhode Island FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 18 | 19 |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 19 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion FC | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 14 |
| 11 | Brooklyn FC | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 26 | 13 |
| 12 | Loudoun United FC | 15 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 29 | 12 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 17 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 44 | 8 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Louisville City FC | Birmingham Legion FC |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit City FC | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Miami FC | 3-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Louisville City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Cup |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 05/07 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Detroit City FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 11/06 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 04/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 3-4 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Union Omaha USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
Birmingham Legion FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Tulsa USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 3-1 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 06/07 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 03/07 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 21/06 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 17/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 10/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Louisville City FC vs Birmingham Legion FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Louisville City FC win (50%). Probabilities: Louisville City FC 50%, draw 25%, Birmingham Legion FC 25%.
How many goals are expected in Louisville City FC vs Birmingham Legion FC?
The model expects 3.14 goals (Louisville City FC 1.87 · Birmingham Legion FC 1.27), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Louisville City FC vs Birmingham Legion FC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.