Football · USA USL Championship · 09/08, 01:00

Prediction: Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC

Team pages: Miami FC · Las Vegas Lights FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Miami FC1.61

Las Vegas Lights FC1.4

1X2

41% 26% 32%

Miami FC Draw Las Vegas Lights FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Miami FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Las Vegas Lights FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLWWWD

Head-to-head

Miami FC 1–1–2 Las Vegas Lights FC (4 last)

Las Vegas Lights FC0-0Miami FC
Las Vegas Lights FC3-1Miami FC
Miami FC4-1Las Vegas Lights FC
Las Vegas Lights FC3-2Miami FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Miami FC 1493 · Las Vegas Lights FC 1506

	Miami FC	Draw	Las Vegas Lights FC
Our model	41%	26%	32%
Market	41%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Las Vegas Lights FC: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Miami FC	Las Vegas Lights FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	1.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:23 +14’	2.15	3.40	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Miami FC 1–1–2 Las Vegas Lights FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/09/25 USA USL Championship	Las Vegas Lights FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Miami FC
09/06/24 USA USL Championship	Las Vegas Lights FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Miami FC
23/04/23 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	4-1 HT 3-0	Las Vegas Lights FC
09/10/22 USA USL Championship	Las Vegas Lights FC	3-2 HT 1-0	Miami FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	18	9	7	2	29	19	34
2	San Antonio FC	18	8	7	3	25	20	31
3	New Mexico United	15	8	3	4	20	15	27
4	Sacramento Republic	16	7	5	4	24	15	26
5	Tulsa	16	7	5	4	19	16	26
6	Lexington SC	17	7	4	6	27	22	25
7	Colorado Switchbacks FC	17	7	4	6	28	24	25
8	El Paso Locomotive FC	17	6	4	7	27	27	22
9	Phoenix Rising FC	18	5	7	6	24	25	22
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	17	6	4	7	25	27	22
11	Oakland Roots	18	5	6	7	25	28	21
12	Monterey Bay FC	18	4	3	11	19	30	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Miami FC	Las Vegas Lights FC
Detroit City FC	2-2 D	1-0 W
Colorado Switchbacks FC	0-2 L	2-0 W
Birmingham Legion FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Orange County SC	2-4 L	2-3 L
Oakland Roots	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Las Vegas Lights FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Miami FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	3	9	D
26/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-2	2-3	3	10	L
23/07	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
16/07	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
12/07	Sarasota Paradise USA USL Cup	3-0	5-0	5	3	W
06/07	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
25/06	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-4	8	4	L
14/06	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
31/05	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
24/05	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	2-1	4-3	0	6	W

Las Vegas Lights FC

WDLWLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
26/07	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/07	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
12/07	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup	0-2	3-2	4	8	W
05/07	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
21/06	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
14/06	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
07/06	Oakland Roots USA USL Cup	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
31/05	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
24/05	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Miami FC win (41%). Probabilities: Miami FC 41%, draw 26%, Las Vegas Lights FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Miami FC 1.61 · Las Vegas Lights FC 1.4), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Miami FC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.