Football · USA USL Championship · 09/08, 01:00

Prediction: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Sacramento Republic

Team pages: Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sacramento Republic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.88Total

Pittsburgh Riverhounds0.96

Sacramento Republic0.92

1X2

35% 32% 33%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Draw Sacramento Republic

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLWLLW

Sacramento Republic 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWLDWW

Head-to-head

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–2–0 Sacramento Republic (3 last)

Sacramento Republic0-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds0-0Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic1-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1506 · Sacramento Republic 1523

	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Draw	Sacramento Republic
Our model	34%	35%	32%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 1.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Sacramento Republic
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.7	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.1	3.1 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:34 +3’	2.45	3.10	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1–2–0 Sacramento Republic

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/08/24 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	0-1 HT 0-1	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
09/07/23 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0-0 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic
09/10/22 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	1-1 HT 0-0	Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	18	9	7	2	29	19	34
2	San Antonio FC	18	8	7	3	25	20	31
3	New Mexico United	15	8	3	4	20	15	27
4	Sacramento Republic	16	7	5	4	24	15	26
5	Tulsa	16	7	5	4	19	16	26
6	Lexington SC	17	7	4	6	27	22	25
7	Colorado Switchbacks FC	17	7	4	6	28	24	25
8	El Paso Locomotive FC	17	6	4	7	27	27	22
9	Phoenix Rising FC	18	5	7	6	24	25	22
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	17	6	4	7	25	27	22
11	Oakland Roots	18	5	6	7	25	28	21
12	Monterey Bay FC	18	4	3	11	19	30	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Sacramento Republic
Oakland Roots	1-0 W	3-1 W
Rhode Island FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Sporting JAX	1-2 L	5-0 W
Charleston Battery	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sacramento Republic (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

DWDLWLWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
30/07	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
26/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
18/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-1	2	4	W
16/07	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
12/07	Loudoun United FC USA USL Cup	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
05/07	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
21/06	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
14/06	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
07/06	Charleston Battery USA USL Cup	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Sacramento Republic

LLDWLWLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	4-0	5-0	4	5	W
26/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
19/07	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/07	AC Boise USA USL Cup	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
09/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	7	2	W
21/06	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/06	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
07/06	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
31/05	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
24/05	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	7	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Sacramento Republic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pittsburgh Riverhounds win (35%). Probabilities: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 35%, draw 32%, Sacramento Republic 33%.

How many goals are expected in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Sacramento Republic?

The model expects 1.88 goals (Pittsburgh Riverhounds 0.96 · Sacramento Republic 0.92), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Sacramento Republic?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.