Football · USA USL Championship · 09/08, 01:00
Prediction: Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC
Team pages: Lexington SC · Phoenix Rising FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Lexington SC2.09
Phoenix Rising FC1.1
1X2
Lexington SC
Draw
Phoenix Rising FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lexington SC
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Phoenix Rising FC
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lexington SC
2–0
Phoenix Rising FC
(2 last)
- Lexington SC2-0Phoenix Rising FC
- Phoenix Rising FC0-1Lexington SC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lexington SC (rating 1547 vs 1453).
- H2H favours Lexington SC: 2-0-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lexington SC | Phoenix Rising FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 5 | 2.8 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lexington SC 2–0–0 Phoenix Rising FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/25 USA USL Championship | Lexington SC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 05/07/25 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Lexington SC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 29 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 25 | 20 | 31 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 27 |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 26 |
| 5 | Tulsa | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 26 |
| 6 | Lexington SC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 22 | 25 |
| 7 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 24 | 25 |
| 8 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 27 | 22 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising FC | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 25 | 22 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 27 | 22 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 28 | 21 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 19 | 30 | 15 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lexington SC | Phoenix Rising FC |
|---|---|---|
| Monterey Bay FC | 3-2 W | 3-2 W |
| Oakland Roots | 2-0 W | 3-4 L |
| New Mexico United | 1-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Louisville City FC | 2-4 L | 0-2 L |
| El Paso Locomotive FC | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Lexington SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lexington SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
2-2 | 3-2 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 23/07 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/07 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Louisville City FC USA USL Cup |
2-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Indy Eleven USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Detroit City FC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 31/05 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
Phoenix Rising FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 19/07 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 05/07 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 14/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 11/06 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | New Mexico United USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lexington SC win (59%). Probabilities: Lexington SC 59%, draw 22%, Phoenix Rising FC 18%.
How many goals are expected in Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Lexington SC 2.09 · Phoenix Rising FC 1.1), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lexington SC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.