Football · USA USL Championship · 16/08, 05:00

Prediction: Sacramento Republic vs Lexington SC

Team pages: Sacramento Republic · Lexington SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Sacramento Republic1.32

Lexington SC1.03

1X2

42% 30% 28%

Sacramento Republic Draw Lexington SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sacramento Republic 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDWWLD

Lexington SC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWLLWDWW

Head-to-head

Sacramento Republic 0–3–0 Lexington SC (3 last)

Lexington SC0-0Sacramento Republic
Lexington SC2-2Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic0-0Lexington SC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sacramento Republic	Lexington SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	1.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.78

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:41

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.93 → 1.93	Pinn 1.93
X	3.55 → 3.55	Pinn 3.55
2	3.73 → 3.73	Pinn 3.73

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:41	1.93	3.55	3.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sacramento Republic 0–3–0 Lexington SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic
18/10/25 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	2-2 HT 1-0	Sacramento Republic
20/07/25 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	0-0 HT 0-0	Lexington SC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	19	9	7	3	29	22	34
2	San Antonio FC	19	8	8	3	26	21	32
3	New Mexico United	16	9	3	4	25	17	30
4	Tulsa	18	8	5	5	20	17	29
5	Lexington SC	18	8	4	6	28	22	28
6	El Paso Locomotive FC	19	8	4	7	29	27	28
7	Sacramento Republic	18	7	6	5	24	16	27
8	Las Vegas Lights FC	19	7	5	7	26	27	26
9	Colorado Switchbacks FC	18	7	4	7	28	26	25
10	Oakland Roots	20	5	7	8	25	29	22
11	Phoenix Rising FC	19	5	7	7	24	26	22
12	Monterey Bay FC	20	4	3	13	21	36	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sacramento Republic	Lexington SC
Tulsa	0-1 L	0-0 D
Oakland Roots	3-1 W	2-0 W
New Mexico United	0-1 L	1-4 L
Monterey Bay FC	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lexington SC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sacramento Republic

DWLWLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
06/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
02/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	4-0	5-0	4	5	W
26/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
19/07	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/07	AC Boise USA USL Cup	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
09/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	7	2	W
21/06	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/06	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
07/06	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	6	4	D

Lexington SC

DWDWLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
02/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-2	11	4	W
26/07	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	10	D
23/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
16/07	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-2	1-4	4	6	L
12/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Cup	2-2	2-4	5	6	L
05/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	3-0	4-1	2	3	W
21/06	Indy Eleven USA USL Cup	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
14/06	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
07/06	Detroit City FC USA USL Cup	0-1	1-1	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sacramento Republic vs Lexington SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sacramento Republic win (42%). Probabilities: Sacramento Republic 42%, draw 30%, Lexington SC 28%.

How many goals are expected in Sacramento Republic vs Lexington SC?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Sacramento Republic 1.32 · Lexington SC 1.03), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sacramento Republic vs Lexington SC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.