Football · USA USL Championship · 16/08, 04:00
Prediction: Orange County SC vs Louisville City FC
Team pages: Orange County SC · Louisville City FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.01Total
Orange County SC1.63
Louisville City FC1.38
1X2
Orange County SC
Draw
Louisville City FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 65%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Orange County SC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Louisville City FC
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Orange County SC
0–1–3
Louisville City FC
(4 last)
- Orange County SC0-0Louisville City FC
- Louisville City FC3-0Orange County SC
- Orange County SC1-3Louisville City FC
- Louisville City FC3-1Orange County SC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Louisville City FC: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Orange County SC | Louisville City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.7 | 1.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/80/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 2.8 | 3.6 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Orange County SC 0–1–3 Louisville City FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/25 USA USL Championship | Orange County SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Louisville City FC |
| 12/05/24 USA USL Championship | Louisville City FC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Orange County SC |
| 12/03/23 USA USL Championship | Orange County SC | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Louisville City FC |
| 19/06/22 USA USL Championship | Louisville City FC | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Orange County SC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 29 | 22 | 34 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 26 | 21 | 32 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 30 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 29 |
| 5 | Lexington SC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 22 | 28 |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 28 |
| 7 | Sacramento Republic | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 16 | 27 |
| 8 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 27 | 26 |
| 9 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 26 | 25 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 22 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 26 | 22 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 21 | 36 | 15 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Orange County SC | Louisville City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 0-3 L | 4-5 L |
| Hartford Athletic | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Louisville City FC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Orange County SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 09/07 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/06 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 07/06 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
Louisville City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 4-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 30/07 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 18/07 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Cup |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 05/07 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Detroit City FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 11/06 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 04/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Orange County SC vs Louisville City FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Orange County SC win (42%). Probabilities: Orange County SC 42%, draw 26%, Louisville City FC 31%.
How many goals are expected in Orange County SC vs Louisville City FC?
The model expects 3.01 goals (Orange County SC 1.63 · Louisville City FC 1.38), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Orange County SC vs Louisville City FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.