Football · USA USL Championship · 16/08, 01:00

Prediction: Hartford Athletic vs Miami FC

Team pages: Hartford Athletic · Miami FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Hartford Athletic1.5

Miami FC0.76

1X2

54% 29% 18%

Hartford Athletic Draw Miami FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Hartford Athletic 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLDWLDL

Miami FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWLLDL

Head-to-head

Hartford Athletic 4–1–1 Miami FC (6 last)

Miami FC0-0Hartford Athletic
Miami FC0-1Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic2-0Miami FC
Miami FC0-3Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic3-2Miami FC
Miami FC2-0Hartford Athletic

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hartford Athletic (rating 1513 vs 1457).
H2H favours Hartford Athletic: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hartford Athletic	Miami FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.9	1.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.4	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.81

Under 2.51.99

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:38

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.81 → 1.83▲	Pinn 1.83
X	3.72 → 3.77▲	Pinn 3.77
2	3.86 → 3.91▲	Pinn 3.91

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:48 +1’	1.81	3.72	3.86
00:38 +1’	1.83▲	3.77▲	3.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hartford Athletic 4–1–1 Miami FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Hartford Athletic
07/09/25 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Hartford Athletic
07/08/25 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	2-0 HT 0-0	Miami FC
15/09/24 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	0-3 HT 0-0	Hartford Athletic
06/04/24 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	3-2 HT 1-0	Miami FC
01/10/23 USA USL Championship	Miami FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Hartford Athletic

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	19	12	5	2	36	19	41
2	Charleston Battery	19	10	3	6	38	24	33
3	Detroit City FC	18	9	4	5	26	17	31
4	Louisville City FC	19	8	4	7	33	32	28
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	19	8	3	8	20	20	27
6	Rhode Island FC	17	7	4	6	27	19	25
7	Miami FC	20	5	7	8	24	32	22
8	Indy Eleven	16	6	3	7	19	20	21
9	Hartford Athletic	17	4	8	5	12	16	20
10	Loudoun United FC	18	3	9	6	21	30	18
11	Birmingham Legion FC	17	3	8	6	18	21	17
12	Brooklyn FC	17	3	4	10	17	32	13
13	Sporting JAX	19	1	5	13	23	51	8

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hartford Athletic	Miami FC
Orange County SC	2-2 D	2-4 L
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0-0 D	0-2 L
Tampa Bay Rowdies	1-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hartford Athletic (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Hartford Athletic

DWWDLDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
26/07	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
19/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
12/07	Westchester SC USA USL Cup	2-1	2-1	9	4	W
09/07	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-2	2-2	17	3	D
05/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
21/06	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	12	2	D
14/06	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
07/06	New York Cosmos USA USL Cup	3-0	4-1	6	8	W
31/05	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	8	6	D

Miami FC

LDLDWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
02/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	3	9	D
26/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-2	2-3	3	10	L
23/07	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
16/07	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
12/07	Sarasota Paradise USA USL Cup	3-0	5-0	5	3	W
06/07	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
25/06	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-4	8	4	L
14/06	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
31/05	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hartford Athletic vs Miami FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hartford Athletic win (54%). Probabilities: Hartford Athletic 54%, draw 29%, Miami FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Hartford Athletic vs Miami FC?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Hartford Athletic 1.5 · Miami FC 0.76), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hartford Athletic vs Miami FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.