Football · USA USL Championship · 23/08, 02:00

Prediction: Birmingham Legion FC vs Sporting JAX

Team pages: Birmingham Legion FC · Sporting JAX

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

Birmingham Legion FC2.26

Sporting JAX1.36

1X2

57% 22% 22%

Birmingham Legion FC Draw Sporting JAX

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Birmingham Legion FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Sporting JAX 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Birmingham Legion FC (rating 1492 vs 1413).
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Birmingham Legion FC	Sporting JAX
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.1 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 4.9	1 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.59 → 1.59	Pinn 1.59
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.00
2	5.17 → 5.17	Pinn 5.17

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:19 +1’	1.59	4.00	5.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	20	13	5	2	38	19	44
2	Charleston Battery	20	10	3	7	39	27	33
3	Detroit City FC	19	9	5	5	26	17	32
4	Louisville City FC	20	9	4	7	36	34	31
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	20	9	3	8	23	21	30
6	Indy Eleven	18	7	4	7	21	21	25
7	Rhode Island FC	18	7	4	7	27	21	25
8	Hartford Athletic	19	5	9	5	15	18	24
9	Miami FC	21	5	7	9	25	34	22
10	Loudoun United FC	19	3	10	6	21	30	19
11	Birmingham Legion FC	18	3	8	7	20	24	17
12	Brooklyn FC	18	3	4	11	18	34	13
13	Sporting JAX	20	1	5	14	23	52	8

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Birmingham Legion FC	Sporting JAX
Detroit City FC	1-2 L	2-6 L
Loudoun United FC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Birmingham Legion FC (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Birmingham Legion FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-3	0	5	L
03/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
30/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	1	7	L
12/07	Tulsa USA USL Cup	1-1	3-1	13	5	W
06/07	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	10	1	D
03/07	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
21/06	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
17/06	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/06	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
10/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL Cup	2-0	3-0	6	5	W

Sporting JAX

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
02/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-4	0-5	0	5	L
26/07	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
19/07	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	5	4	D
16/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
04/07	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
21/06	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	1-3	2-5	3	5	L
14/06	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-3	2-6	5	6	L
11/06	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
07/06	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Cup	0-2	0-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Birmingham Legion FC vs Sporting JAX?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Birmingham Legion FC win (57%). Probabilities: Birmingham Legion FC 57%, draw 22%, Sporting JAX 22%.

How many goals are expected in Birmingham Legion FC vs Sporting JAX?

The model expects 3.62 goals (Birmingham Legion FC 2.26 · Sporting JAX 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Birmingham Legion FC vs Sporting JAX?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.