Football · USA USL Championship · 23/08, 05:00

Prediction: Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising FC

Team pages: Sacramento Republic · Phoenix Rising FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Sacramento Republic1.53

Phoenix Rising FC1.04

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Sacramento Republic Draw Phoenix Rising FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sacramento Republic 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Phoenix Rising FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sacramento Republic 2–3–1 Phoenix Rising FC (6 last)

Phoenix Rising FC2-0Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic2-0Phoenix Rising FC
Sacramento Republic2-2Phoenix Rising FC
Phoenix Rising FC2-2Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic2-0Phoenix Rising FC
Phoenix Rising FC1-1Sacramento Republic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sacramento Republic 1527 · Phoenix Rising FC 1464

	Sacramento Republic	Draw	Phoenix Rising FC
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	48%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sacramento Republic (rating 1527 vs 1464).
H2H favours Sacramento Republic: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sacramento Republic	Phoenix Rising FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.7	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	0/90/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	2.5 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 15:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.80▲	Pinn 1.81
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.85 ★
2	3.90 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.88

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:19 +5’	1.70	3.60	3.90
11:17 +1’	1.73▲	3.60	3.80▼
13:45 +7’	1.80▲	3.50▼	3.70▼
20:43 +5’	1.85▲	3.40▼	3.40▼
07:44 +4’	1.83▼	3.40	3.50▲
15:33 +6’	1.80▼	3.50▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:12 +1’	1.73	3.69	4.28
07:42 +1’	1.75▲	3.73▲	4.35▲
11:18 +1’	1.76▲	3.79▲	4.17▼
13:52	1.83▲	3.73▼	3.89▼
16:38	1.92▲	3.73	3.59▼
20:45 +3’	1.92	3.72▼	3.59
07:47 +1’	1.85▼	3.79▲	3.76▲
15:39	1.81▼	3.85▲	3.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sacramento Republic 2–3–1 Phoenix Rising FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Sacramento Republic
05/04/26 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	2-0 HT 2-0	Phoenix Rising FC
14/09/25 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	2-2 HT 2-0	Phoenix Rising FC
19/04/25 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	2-2 HT 1-2	Sacramento Republic
15/09/24 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	2-0 HT 1-0	Phoenix Rising FC
05/05/24 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Sacramento Republic

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	20	9	7	4	31	25	34
2	New Mexico United	17	10	3	4	26	17	33
3	San Antonio FC	20	8	8	4	26	24	32
4	El Paso Locomotive FC	20	9	4	7	32	27	31
5	Sacramento Republic	19	8	6	5	25	16	30
6	Tulsa	19	8	5	6	20	18	29
7	Las Vegas Lights FC	20	8	5	7	28	28	29
8	Lexington SC	19	8	4	7	28	23	28
9	Colorado Switchbacks FC	20	8	4	8	32	31	28
10	Phoenix Rising FC	20	6	7	7	27	27	25
11	Oakland Roots	21	5	8	8	26	30	23
12	Monterey Bay FC	21	4	4	13	22	37	16

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sacramento Republic	Phoenix Rising FC
Lexington SC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Oakland Roots	3-1 W	3-4 L
Colorado Switchbacks FC	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sacramento Republic (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sacramento Republic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
09/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
06/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
02/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	4-0	5-0	4	5	W
26/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
19/07	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/07	AC Boise USA USL Cup	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
09/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	7	2	W
21/06	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/06	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	1	8	W

Phoenix Rising FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
09/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
02/08	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
26/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
19/07	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-2	9	4	W
12/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL Cup	0-2	1-2	6	8	L
05/07	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
21/06	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	3-4	9	7	L
14/06	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
11/06	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sacramento Republic win (48%). Probabilities: Sacramento Republic 48%, draw 27%, Phoenix Rising FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising FC?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Sacramento Republic 1.53 · Phoenix Rising FC 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.