Football · USA USL Championship · 23/08, 01:00
Prediction: Indy Eleven vs Louisville City FC
Team pages: Indy Eleven · Louisville City FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.56Total
Indy Eleven1.19
Louisville City FC1.37
1X2
Indy Eleven
Draw
Louisville City FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Indy Eleven
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Louisville City FC
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Indy Eleven
0–1–5
Louisville City FC
(6 last)
- Louisville City FC2-0Indy Eleven
- Indy Eleven1-3Louisville City FC
- Indy Eleven2-2Louisville City FC
- Louisville City FC5-3Indy Eleven
- Louisville City FC2-0Indy Eleven
- Indy Eleven0-1Louisville City FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Louisville City FC (rating 1460 vs 1542).
- H2H favours Louisville City FC: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Indy Eleven | Louisville City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1 | 1.7 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.2 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/80/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.8 | 3.4 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Indy Eleven 0–1–5 Louisville City FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/25 USA USL Championship | Louisville City FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Indy Eleven |
| 31/08/25 USA USL Championship | Indy Eleven | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Louisville City FC |
| 06/10/24 USA USL Championship | Indy Eleven | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Louisville City FC |
| 06/04/24 USA USL Championship | Louisville City FC | 5-3 HT 2-1 | Indy Eleven |
| 30/07/23 USA USL Championship | Louisville City FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Indy Eleven |
| 28/05/23 USA USL Championship | Indy Eleven | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Louisville City FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 19 | 44 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 27 | 33 |
| 3 | Detroit City FC | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 17 | 32 |
| 4 | Louisville City FC | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 34 | 31 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 21 | 30 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 21 | 25 |
| 7 | Rhode Island FC | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 21 | 25 |
| 8 | Hartford Athletic | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 24 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 34 | 22 |
| 10 | Loudoun United FC | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 21 | 30 | 19 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion FC | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 24 | 17 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 34 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 20 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 23 | 52 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Indy Eleven | Louisville City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Hartford Athletic | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| San Antonio FC | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Detroit City FC | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Lexington SC | 0-0 D | 4-2 W |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Louisville City FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Indy Eleven
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 16/07 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Lexington SC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Forward Madison FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
Louisville City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 4-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 30/07 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 18/07 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Cup |
2-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 05/07 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Detroit City FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 11/06 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Indy Eleven vs Louisville City FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Louisville City FC win (40%). Probabilities: Indy Eleven 31%, draw 29%, Louisville City FC 40%.
How many goals are expected in Indy Eleven vs Louisville City FC?
The model expects 2.56 goals (Indy Eleven 1.19 · Louisville City FC 1.37), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Indy Eleven vs Louisville City FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.