Football · USA USL Championship · 23/08, 01:00
Prediction: Lexington SC vs Las Vegas Lights FC
Team pages: Lexington SC · Las Vegas Lights FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Lexington SC1.3
Las Vegas Lights FC1.33
1X2
Lexington SC
Draw
Las Vegas Lights FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lexington SC
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Las Vegas Lights FC
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lexington SC
0–1–2
Las Vegas Lights FC
(3 last)
- Las Vegas Lights FC2-1Lexington SC
- Las Vegas Lights FC1-0Lexington SC
- Lexington SC0-0Las Vegas Lights FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Las Vegas Lights FC (rating 1505 vs 1565).
- H2H favours Las Vegas Lights FC: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lexington SC | Las Vegas Lights FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.8 | 1.6 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lexington SC 0–1–2 Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Lexington SC |
| 31/08/25 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Lexington SC |
| 13/04/25 USA USL Championship | Lexington SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 25 | 34 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 17 | 33 |
| 3 | San Antonio FC | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 26 | 24 | 32 |
| 4 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 31 |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 16 | 30 |
| 6 | Tulsa | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 29 |
| 7 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 28 | 29 |
| 8 | Lexington SC | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 23 | 28 |
| 9 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 28 | 28 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 30 | 23 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 26 | 22 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 37 | 16 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lexington SC | Las Vegas Lights FC |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Rising FC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Monterey Bay FC | 3-2 W | 3-2 W |
| Oakland Roots | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| San Antonio FC | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Lexington SC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lexington SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
2-2 | 3-2 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 23/07 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/07 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Louisville City FC USA USL Cup |
2-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Indy Eleven USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 06/08 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 19/07 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/07 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 05/07 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lexington SC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Las Vegas Lights FC win (36%). Probabilities: Lexington SC 35%, draw 29%, Las Vegas Lights FC 36%.
How many goals are expected in Lexington SC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Lexington SC 1.3 · Las Vegas Lights FC 1.33), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lexington SC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.