Football · USA USL Championship · 23/08, 01:00
Prediction: Loudoun United FC vs New Mexico United
Team pages: Loudoun United FC · New Mexico United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Loudoun United FC1.2
New Mexico United1.66
1X2
Loudoun United FC
Draw
New Mexico United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Loudoun United FC
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
New Mexico United
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Loudoun United FC
1–2
New Mexico United
(3 last)
- New Mexico United1-0Loudoun United FC
- Loudoun United FC1-3New Mexico United
- New Mexico United0-1Loudoun United FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New Mexico United (rating 1477 vs 1601).
- H2H favours New Mexico United: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Loudoun United FC | New Mexico United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.5 | 2.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 3.2 | 2.3 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Loudoun United FC 1–0–2 New Mexico United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/24 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Loudoun United FC |
| 18/05/23 USA USL Championship | Loudoun United FC | 1-3 HT 0-1 | New Mexico United |
| 30/05/21 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Loudoun United FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 25 | 34 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 17 | 33 |
| 3 | San Antonio FC | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 26 | 24 | 32 |
| 4 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 31 |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 16 | 30 |
| 6 | Tulsa | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 29 |
| 7 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 28 | 28 | 29 |
| 8 | Lexington SC | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 23 | 28 |
| 9 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 28 | 28 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 30 | 23 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 26 | 22 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 22 | 37 | 16 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Loudoun United FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 12/07 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 25/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
New Mexico United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 5-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 12/07 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 05/07 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/07 | Atlante Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 21/06 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 07/06 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Loudoun United FC vs New Mexico United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an New Mexico United win (47%). Probabilities: Loudoun United FC 26%, draw 27%, New Mexico United 47%.
How many goals are expected in Loudoun United FC vs New Mexico United?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Loudoun United FC 1.2 · New Mexico United 1.66), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Loudoun United FC vs New Mexico United?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.