Football · USA USL Championship · 23/08, 01:30

Prediction: Rhode Island FC vs Monterey Bay FC

Team pages: Rhode Island FC · Monterey Bay FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Rhode Island FC1.98

Monterey Bay FC0.97

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Rhode Island FC Draw Monterey Bay FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Rhode Island FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLDWWLWL

Monterey Bay FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Rhode Island FC 0–2–0 Monterey Bay FC (2 last)

Rhode Island FC1-1Monterey Bay FC
Monterey Bay FC2-2Rhode Island FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rhode Island FC (rating 1530 vs 1434).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rhode Island FC	Monterey Bay FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.7	3.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.78

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:39

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.43 → 1.43	Pinn 1.43
X	4.69 → 4.69	Pinn 4.69
2	6.07 → 6.07	Pinn 6.07

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
05:39	1.43	4.69	6.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rhode Island FC 0–2–0 Monterey Bay FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/25 USA USL Championship	Rhode Island FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Monterey Bay FC
24/03/24 USA USL Championship	Monterey Bay FC	2-2 HT 2-1	Rhode Island FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	20	9	7	4	31	25	34
2	New Mexico United	17	10	3	4	26	17	33
3	San Antonio FC	20	8	8	4	26	24	32
4	El Paso Locomotive FC	20	9	4	7	32	27	31
5	Sacramento Republic	19	8	6	5	25	16	30
6	Tulsa	19	8	5	6	20	18	29
7	Las Vegas Lights FC	20	8	5	7	28	28	29
8	Lexington SC	19	8	4	7	28	23	28
9	Colorado Switchbacks FC	19	8	4	7	31	28	28
10	Oakland Roots	21	5	8	8	26	30	23
11	Phoenix Rising FC	19	5	7	7	24	26	22
12	Monterey Bay FC	21	4	4	13	22	37	16

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Rhode Island FC

WWDLDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
09/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	2	8	W
03/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	13	3	L
26/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
19/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
12/07	Brooklyn FC USA USL Cup	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
09/07	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
05/07	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
14/06	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	4-1	3	5	W
07/06	Westchester SC USA USL Cup	2-0	3-0	6	0	W

Monterey Bay FC

LWDLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
09/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-1	2-5	12	3	L
06/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
02/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	2-2	2-3	5	4	L
26/07	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
19/07	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
12/07	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Cup	2-0	2-3	6	8	L
05/07	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
21/06	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
18/06	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rhode Island FC vs Monterey Bay FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rhode Island FC win (60%). Probabilities: Rhode Island FC 60%, draw 23%, Monterey Bay FC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Rhode Island FC vs Monterey Bay FC?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Rhode Island FC 1.98 · Monterey Bay FC 0.97), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Rhode Island FC vs Monterey Bay FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.