Football · USA USL Championship · 25/10, 01:00

Prediction: Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island FC

Team pages: Hartford Athletic · Rhode Island FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Hartford Athletic1.17

Rhode Island FC1.2

1X2

35% 29% 36%

Hartford Athletic Draw Rhode Island FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hartford Athletic 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Rhode Island FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWWLWD

Head-to-head

Hartford Athletic 1–3–2 Rhode Island FC (6 last)

Rhode Island FC1-0Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic0-0Rhode Island FC
Rhode Island FC2-0Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic3-0Rhode Island FC
Rhode Island FC2-2Hartford Athletic
Rhode Island FC0-0Hartford Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hartford Athletic 1486 · Rhode Island FC 1519

	Hartford Athletic	Draw	Rhode Island FC
Our model	34%	31%	35%
Market	36%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Rhode Island FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hartford Athletic	Rhode Island FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.5	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.25

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.63
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.64 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +3’	2.50	3.25	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:44 +51’	2.61	3.20	2.63
02:42 +51’	2.64▲	3.23▲	2.65▲
08:20 +5’	2.63▼	3.22▼	2.64▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hartford Athletic 1–3–2 Rhode Island FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 USA USL Championship	Rhode Island FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Hartford Athletic
26/04/26 USA USL Cup	Hartford Athletic	0-0 HT 0-0	Rhode Island FC
02/04/26 USA US Open Cup	Rhode Island FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Hartford Athletic
24/08/25 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	3-0 HT 1-0	Rhode Island FC
27/07/25 USA USL Cup	Rhode Island FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Hartford Athletic
19/07/25 USA USL Championship	Rhode Island FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Hartford Athletic

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	29	17	7	5	50	26	58
2	Charleston Battery	29	15	5	9	55	35	50
3	Detroit City FC	29	14	8	7	34	21	50
4	Louisville City FC	28	12	7	9	49	43	43
5	Rhode Island FC	29	12	6	11	41	31	42
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	12	6	11	31	29	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	9	13	7	33	32	40
8	Miami FC	30	9	9	12	39	49	36
9	Indy Eleven	29	9	7	13	35	40	34
10	Loudoun United FC	29	5	13	11	34	45	28
11	Birmingham Legion FC	28	5	12	11	37	43	27
12	Brooklyn FC	28	5	6	17	30	57	21
13	Sporting JAX	28	3	5	20	32	74	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hartford Athletic	Rhode Island FC
Brooklyn FC	2-3 L	3-1 W
Charleston Battery	1-1 D	0-2 L
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1-2 L	1-1 D
Louisville City FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Sporting JAX	2-0 W	3-0 W
Detroit City FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Rhode Island FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hartford Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-3	6	6	L
15/10	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
11/10	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	1	3	L
26/09	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-2	7	7	D
20/09	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
17/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
13/09	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	3-1	1	10	W
06/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
03/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
30/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-2	6	6	W

Rhode Island FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
15/10	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
11/10	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
04/10	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
01/10	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
27/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
20/09	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
13/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	3-0	7	5	W
06/09	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
30/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rhode Island FC win (36%). Probabilities: Hartford Athletic 35%, draw 29%, Rhode Island FC 36%.

How many goals are expected in Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island FC?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Hartford Athletic 1.17 · Rhode Island FC 1.2), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.