Football · USA USL Championship · 25/10, 01:00

Prediction: Louisville City FC vs Detroit City FC

Team pages: Louisville City FC · Detroit City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Louisville City FC1.25

Detroit City FC0.71

1X2

50% 29% 22%

Louisville City FC Draw Detroit City FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Louisville City FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDDLWDWW

Detroit City FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWDWWWL

Head-to-head

Louisville City FC 2–2–2 Detroit City FC (6 last)

Louisville City FC0-0Detroit City FC
Detroit City FC0-0Louisville City FC
Detroit City FC2-1Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC0-1Detroit City FC
Detroit City FC0-1Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC2-0Detroit City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Louisville City FC 1544 · Detroit City FC 1550

	Louisville City FC	Draw	Detroit City FC
Our model	48%	32%	20%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Louisville City FC	Detroit City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.2	1.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +2’	1.75	3.50	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Louisville City FC 2–2–2 Detroit City FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Detroit City FC
20/06/26 USA USL Cup	Detroit City FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Louisville City FC
03/05/26 USA USL Championship	Detroit City FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Louisville City FC
02/11/25 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Detroit City FC
28/09/25 USA USL Championship	Detroit City FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Louisville City FC
29/03/25 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Detroit City FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	29	17	7	5	50	26	58
2	Charleston Battery	29	15	5	9	55	35	50
3	Detroit City FC	29	14	8	7	34	21	50
4	Louisville City FC	28	12	7	9	49	43	43
5	Rhode Island FC	29	12	6	11	41	31	42
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	12	6	11	31	29	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	9	13	7	33	32	40
8	Miami FC	30	9	9	12	39	49	36
9	Indy Eleven	29	9	7	13	35	40	34
10	Loudoun United FC	29	5	13	11	34	45	28
11	Birmingham Legion FC	28	5	12	11	37	43	27
12	Brooklyn FC	28	5	6	17	30	57	21
13	Sporting JAX	28	3	5	20	32	74	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Louisville City FC	Detroit City FC
Hartford Athletic	2-2 D	1-1 D
Rhode Island FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Detroit City FC (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Louisville City FC

DWLDDLWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	3-0	4-1	4	3	W
11/10	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
26/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	2-2	7	7	D
20/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
13/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	12	4	L
06/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
30/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	11	1	L
16/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	4	1	W
09/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D

Detroit City FC

WDDLWDWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
11/10	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
04/10	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
01/10	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-1	4	3	W
27/09	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
20/09	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
13/09	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
06/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	12	4	D
30/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Louisville City FC vs Detroit City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Louisville City FC win (50%). Probabilities: Louisville City FC 50%, draw 29%, Detroit City FC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Louisville City FC vs Detroit City FC?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Louisville City FC 1.25 · Detroit City FC 0.71), with a 60% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Louisville City FC vs Detroit City FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.