Football · USA USL Championship · 25/10, 01:00

Prediction: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion FC

Team pages: Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Birmingham Legion FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.59

Birmingham Legion FC0.96

1X2

52% 26% 22%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Draw Birmingham Legion FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDDWLLWD

Birmingham Legion FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLDDDLWLWD

Head-to-head

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3–2–1 Birmingham Legion FC (6 last)

Birmingham Legion FC1-0Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Birmingham Legion FC1-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds2-0Birmingham Legion FC
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1-1Birmingham Legion FC
Birmingham Legion FC0-3Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds2-1Birmingham Legion FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1506 · Birmingham Legion FC 1485

	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Draw	Birmingham Legion FC
Our model	51%	27%	21%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Pittsburgh Riverhounds: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Birmingham Legion FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/80/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.9	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +2’	1.73	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3–2–1 Birmingham Legion FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
24/08/25 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
30/03/25 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2-0 HT 1-0	Birmingham Legion FC
29/09/24 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1-1 HT 1-0	Birmingham Legion FC
25/08/24 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	0-3 HT 0-2	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
14/05/23 USA USL Championship	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2-1 HT 1-1	Birmingham Legion FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	29	17	7	5	50	26	58
2	Charleston Battery	29	15	5	9	55	35	50
3	Detroit City FC	29	14	8	7	34	21	50
4	Louisville City FC	28	12	7	9	49	43	43
5	Rhode Island FC	29	12	6	11	41	31	42
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	12	6	11	31	29	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	9	13	7	33	32	40
8	Miami FC	30	9	9	12	39	49	36
9	Indy Eleven	29	9	7	13	35	40	34
10	Loudoun United FC	29	5	13	11	34	45	28
11	Birmingham Legion FC	28	5	12	11	37	43	27
12	Brooklyn FC	28	5	6	17	30	57	21
13	Sporting JAX	28	3	5	20	32	74	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Birmingham Legion FC
Hartford Athletic	2-1 W	2-3 L
Detroit City FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Loudoun United FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Tampa Bay Rowdies	0-0 D	0-4 L
Brooklyn FC	1-0 W	4-0 W
Charleston Battery	3-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

WWLDDWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	0	1	D
11/10	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
27/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
20/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
13/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
06/09	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
27/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-2	2	1	L
23/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
16/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	2-1	3-1	6	7	W

Birmingham Legion FC

LLDDDLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
15/10	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
04/10	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
23/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-0	4-0	4	1	W
20/09	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-2	0-4	7	4	L
17/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-2	4-4	9	5	D
13/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	2-2	2-2	1	3	D
06/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	3	2	D
30/08	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	2-2	2-3	5	6	L
23/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	0-0	2-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pittsburgh Riverhounds win (52%). Probabilities: Pittsburgh Riverhounds 52%, draw 26%, Birmingham Legion FC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion FC?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.59 · Birmingham Legion FC 0.96), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.