Football · USA USL Championship · 25/10, 01:30

Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX

Team pages: Tampa Bay Rowdies · Sporting JAX

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Tampa Bay Rowdies2.49

Sporting JAX0.7

1X2

77% 14% 9%

Tampa Bay Rowdies Draw Sporting JAX

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tampa Bay Rowdies 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWDLWW

Sporting JAX 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2–0 Sporting JAX (2 last)

Sporting JAX0-2Tampa Bay Rowdies
Sporting JAX0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1553 · Sporting JAX 1387

	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Draw	Sporting JAX
Our model	76%	17%	8%
Market	78%	12%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (rating 1553 vs 1387).
H2H favours Tampa Bay Rowdies: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Sporting JAX
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.9 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.9	1.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.20

X7.50

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.82

2 (+2)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Bet365 1.20
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +3’	1.20	7.50	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampa Bay Rowdies 2–0–0 Sporting JAX

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 USA USL Cup	Sporting JAX	0-2 HT 0-2	Tampa Bay Rowdies
05/04/26 USA USL Championship	Sporting JAX	0-1 HT 0-0	Tampa Bay Rowdies

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	29	17	7	5	50	26	58
2	Charleston Battery	29	15	5	9	55	35	50
3	Detroit City FC	29	14	8	7	34	21	50
4	Louisville City FC	28	12	7	9	49	43	43
5	Rhode Island FC	29	12	6	11	41	31	42
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	12	6	11	31	29	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	9	13	7	33	32	40
8	Miami FC	30	9	9	12	39	49	36
9	Indy Eleven	29	9	7	13	35	40	34
10	Loudoun United FC	29	5	13	11	34	45	28
11	Birmingham Legion FC	28	5	12	11	37	43	27
12	Brooklyn FC	28	5	6	17	30	57	21
13	Sporting JAX	28	3	5	20	32	74	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Sporting JAX
Indy Eleven	3-1 W	0-1 L
Miami FC	1-2 L	1-4 L
Birmingham Legion FC	4-0 W	0-1 L
Hartford Athletic	1-3 L	0-2 L
Brooklyn FC	2-0 W	1-4 L
Rhode Island FC	2-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Tampa Bay Rowdies (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tampa Bay Rowdies

WLDWLWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
11/10	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	3-1	10	4	W
04/10	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
27/09	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
20/09	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-0	4-0	6	4	W
13/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	1-3	5	10	L
06/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
29/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
23/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
16/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	8	4	W

Sporting JAX

LLWLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/10	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
01/10	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-2	1-4	4	6	L
26/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-4	7	3	L
17/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
13/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-3	5	5	L
06/09	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
30/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-3	1-4	5	4	L
23/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-2	5	2	W
16/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
02/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-4	0-5	0	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tampa Bay Rowdies win (77%). Probabilities: Tampa Bay Rowdies 77%, draw 14%, Sporting JAX 9%.

How many goals are expected in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Tampa Bay Rowdies 2.49 · Sporting JAX 0.7), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.