Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 03/10, 20:00

Prediction: El Porvenir vs Canuelas FC

Team pages: El Porvenir · Canuelas FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

El Porvenir1

Canuelas FC1.2

1X2

29% 32% 39%

El Porvenir Draw Canuelas FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

El Porvenir 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Canuelas FC 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

El Porvenir 1–3–2 Canuelas FC (6 last)

Canuelas FC0-0El Porvenir
Canuelas FC3-0El Porvenir
El Porvenir1-1Canuelas FC
Canuelas FC3-2El Porvenir
Canuelas FC1-2El Porvenir
El Porvenir1-1Canuelas FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · El Porvenir 1476 · Canuelas FC 1554

	El Porvenir	Draw	Canuelas FC
Our model	29%	32%	39%
Market	29%	32%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Canuelas FC (rating 1476 vs 1554).
H2H favours Canuelas FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	El Porvenir	Canuelas FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.2	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X2.80

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.85

Under 1.751.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:48 +23’	3.10	2.80	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · El Porvenir 1–3–2 Canuelas FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Canuelas FC	0-0 HT 0-0	El Porvenir
01/11/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Canuelas FC	3-0 HT 3-0	El Porvenir
12/03/19 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	El Porvenir	1-1 HT 1-0	Canuelas FC
30/09/18 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Canuelas FC	3-2 HT 1-0	El Porvenir
21/04/18 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Canuelas FC	1-2 HT 1-1	El Porvenir
28/11/17 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	El Porvenir	1-1 HT 1-0	Canuelas FC

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lujan	30	17	7	6	44	22	58
2	Canuelas FC	30	16	9	5	38	21	57
3	Deportivo Espanol	30	11	15	4	24	15	48
4	Central Cordoba de Rosario	30	12	10	8	31	22	46
5	Leones de Rosario	30	11	12	7	27	24	45
6	General Lamadrid	30	9	13	8	23	26	40
7	Sportivo Barracas	30	11	6	13	32	30	39
8	Central Ballester	30	10	8	12	28	28	38
9	CA Atlas	30	9	10	11	23	26	37
10	El Porvenir	30	7	15	8	25	30	36
11	Yupanqui	30	8	11	11	33	34	35
12	CA Claypole	30	8	8	14	24	38	32
13	Fenix	30	7	10	13	22	30	31
14	Deportivo Muniz	30	5	11	14	20	35	26

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	El Porvenir	Canuelas FC
Deportivo Muniz	2-3 L	0-1 L
Yupanqui	0-3 L	2-1 W
Fenix	0-0 D	2-1 W
Sportivo Barracas	2-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Canuelas FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

El Porvenir

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-3	1	2	L
21/09	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
12/09	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
05/09	Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
29/08	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	4-2	4	6	W
23/08	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/08	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
08/08	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
04/08	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
28/07	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-3	7	5	L

Canuelas FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
21/09	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
12/09	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
06/09	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	3-2	1	8	W
31/08	General Lamadrid Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
22/08	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
15/08	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-2	1-2	4	10	L
09/08	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	2	6	L
03/08	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
25/07	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in El Porvenir vs Canuelas FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Canuelas FC win (39%). Probabilities: El Porvenir 29%, draw 32%, Canuelas FC 39%.

How many goals are expected in El Porvenir vs Canuelas FC?

The model expects 2.19 goals (El Porvenir 1 · Canuelas FC 1.2), with a 55% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in El Porvenir vs Canuelas FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.