Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 03/10, 20:00

Prediction: Deportivo Paraguayo vs Club Mercedes

Team pages: Deportivo Paraguayo · Club Mercedes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

Deportivo Paraguayo0.78

Club Mercedes1.2

1X2

23% 32% 45%

Deportivo Paraguayo Draw Club Mercedes

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Paraguayo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWDWLWD

Club Mercedes 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLLDWW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Paraguayo 0–2–4 Club Mercedes (6 last)

Club Mercedes0-0Deportivo Paraguayo
Club Mercedes2-0Deportivo Paraguayo
Deportivo Paraguayo0-0Club Mercedes
Club Mercedes2-1Deportivo Paraguayo
Deportivo Paraguayo0-1Club Mercedes
Deportivo Paraguayo0-2Club Mercedes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Paraguayo 1503 · Club Mercedes 1501

	Deportivo Paraguayo	Draw	Club Mercedes
Our model	23%	33%	45%
Market	24%	31%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Club Mercedes: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Paraguayo	Club Mercedes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.8	1.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.6	5.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.75

X2.88

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.75

2 (-0.5)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:05 +7’	3.75	2.88	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Paraguayo 0–2–4 Club Mercedes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Paraguayo
03/10/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Paraguayo
26/09/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Paraguayo	0-0 HT 0-0	Club Mercedes
10/08/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Paraguayo
08/03/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Paraguayo	0-1 HT 0-1	Club Mercedes
20/11/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Deportivo Paraguayo	0-2 HT 0-1	Club Mercedes

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Berazategui	30	12	12	6	35	21	48
2	CA Lugano	30	11	13	6	33	25	46
3	Sacachispas	30	13	7	10	32	26	46
4	Centro Espanol	30	11	11	8	37	27	44
5	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	30	11	11	8	31	29	44
6	Club Mercedes	30	11	10	9	29	23	43
7	Juventud Unida San Miguel	30	11	9	10	35	29	42
8	Victoriano Arenas	30	9	14	7	23	19	41
9	Puerto Nuevo	30	9	11	10	27	31	38
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	30	9	9	12	25	30	36
11	Deportivo Paraguayo	30	7	10	13	22	38	31
12	Club Leandro N. Alem	30	8	7	15	29	51	31
13	JJ Urquiza	30	5	14	11	15	25	29
14	Argentino de Rosario	30	3	15	12	27	39	24

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Paraguayo	Club Mercedes
Puerto Nuevo	3-2 W	1-0 W
Club Leandro N. Alem	4-1 W	1-0 W
Defensores de Cambaceres	0-0 D	0-3 L
Juventud Unida San Miguel	2-1 W	1-4 L
Sacachispas	0-2 L	2-0 W
Argentino de Rosario	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Paraguayo (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Paraguayo

WDLLWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
20/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-2	3	8	W
12/09	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
06/09	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	4-1	2	6	W
29/08	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
22/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	7	3	W
16/08	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/08	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
04/08	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	9	D
31/07	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	7	4	W

Club Mercedes

WDLLWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
20/09	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/09	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
05/09	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
30/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
22/08	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
18/08	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
08/08	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
31/07	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	9	D
25/07	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Paraguayo vs Club Mercedes?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Club Mercedes win (45%). Probabilities: Deportivo Paraguayo 23%, draw 32%, Club Mercedes 45%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Paraguayo vs Club Mercedes?

The model expects 1.98 goals (Deportivo Paraguayo 0.78 · Club Mercedes 1.2), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Paraguayo vs Club Mercedes?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.