Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 26/09, 20:00

Prediction: Deportivo Paraguayo vs CA Lugano

Team pages: Deportivo Paraguayo · CA Lugano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.88Total

Deportivo Paraguayo0.76

CA Lugano1.12

1X2

24% 32% 43%

Deportivo Paraguayo Draw CA Lugano

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Paraguayo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWDWLW

CA Lugano 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWDWDD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Paraguayo 2–2–2 CA Lugano (6 last)

CA Lugano0-0Deportivo Paraguayo
Deportivo Paraguayo1-2CA Lugano
CA Lugano0-1Deportivo Paraguayo
CA Lugano0-2Deportivo Paraguayo
Deportivo Paraguayo1-1CA Lugano
Deportivo Paraguayo0-1CA Lugano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Paraguayo 1503 · CA Lugano 1537

	Deportivo Paraguayo	Draw	CA Lugano
Our model	24%	34%	42%
Market	25%	31%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 1.88 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Paraguayo	CA Lugano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.5	5.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.60

X2.88

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.75

Under 1.752.05

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:26 +3’	3.60	2.88	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Paraguayo 2–2–2 CA Lugano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Paraguayo
24/08/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Deportivo Paraguayo	1-2 HT 0-1	CA Lugano
27/03/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	0-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Paraguayo
17/09/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	CA Lugano	0-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Paraguayo
12/06/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Deportivo Paraguayo	1-1 HT 0-0	CA Lugano
25/03/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Deportivo Paraguayo	0-1 HT 0-0	CA Lugano

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sacachispas	29	13	7	9	32	23	46
2	Berazategui	29	11	12	6	32	21	45
3	CA Lugano	29	11	12	6	32	24	45
4	Centro Espanol	29	10	11	8	35	27	41
5	Juventud Unida San Miguel	29	11	8	10	34	28	41
6	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	29	10	11	8	29	28	41
7	Club Mercedes	29	10	10	9	28	23	40
8	Victoriano Arenas	29	9	13	7	22	18	40
9	Puerto Nuevo	29	9	11	9	27	30	38
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	29	9	9	11	25	28	36
11	Deportivo Paraguayo	29	7	9	13	21	37	30
12	JJ Urquiza	29	5	14	10	14	23	29
13	Club Leandro N. Alem	29	7	7	15	27	50	28
14	Argentino de Rosario	29	3	15	11	26	37	24

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Paraguayo	CA Lugano
Puerto Nuevo	3-2 W	1-0 W
Lujan	0-3 L	1-2 L
Club Leandro N. Alem	4-1 W	1-0 W
Defensores de Cambaceres	0-0 D	2-1 W
Sportivo Barracas	0-1 L	3-2 W
Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CA Lugano (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Paraguayo

LWDLLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-2	3	8	W
12/09	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
06/09	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	4-1	2	6	W
29/08	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
22/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	7	3	W
16/08	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/08	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
04/08	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	9	D
31/07	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
25/07	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	6	L

CA Lugano

WWWDLWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	8	7	D
12/09	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
06/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
22/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/08	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
09/08	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
31/07	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	4	9	W
25/07	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
17/07	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-2	3-2	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Paraguayo vs CA Lugano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CA Lugano win (43%). Probabilities: Deportivo Paraguayo 24%, draw 32%, CA Lugano 43%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Paraguayo vs CA Lugano?

The model expects 1.88 goals (Deportivo Paraguayo 0.76 · CA Lugano 1.12), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Paraguayo vs CA Lugano?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.