Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 04/10, 20:00

Prediction: CA Lugano vs Argentino de Rosario

Team pages: CA Lugano · Argentino de Rosario

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

CA Lugano1.45

Argentino de Rosario0.6

1X2

57% 28% 15%

CA Lugano Draw Argentino de Rosario

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Lugano 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDWDDD

Argentino de Rosario 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLDDLDL

Head-to-head

CA Lugano 1–5 Argentino de Rosario (6 last)

Argentino de Rosario2-1CA Lugano
Argentino de Rosario0-1CA Lugano
CA Lugano0-2Argentino de Rosario
CA Lugano1-2Argentino de Rosario
Argentino de Rosario4-2CA Lugano
Argentino de Rosario3-0CA Lugano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Lugano 1525 · Argentino de Rosario 1464

	CA Lugano	Draw	Argentino de Rosario
Our model	57%	29%	14%
Market	57%	28%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Lugano (rating 1525 vs 1464).
H2H favours Argentino de Rosario: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Lugano	Argentino de Rosario
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	2.2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.6	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.25

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:00 +57’	1.57	3.25	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Lugano 1–0–5 Argentino de Rosario

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Argentino de Rosario	2-1 HT 1-0	CA Lugano
13/08/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Argentino de Rosario	0-1 HT 0-1	CA Lugano
22/03/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	0-2 HT 0-1	Argentino de Rosario
02/10/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	CA Lugano	1-2 HT 0-1	Argentino de Rosario
24/06/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Argentino de Rosario	4-2 HT 0-1	CA Lugano
07/04/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Argentino de Rosario	3-0 HT 3-0	CA Lugano

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Berazategui	31	12	12	7	37	24	48
2	CA Lugano	30	11	13	6	33	25	46
3	Sacachispas	30	13	7	10	32	26	46
4	Juventud Unida San Miguel	31	12	9	10	38	31	45
5	Centro Espanol	30	11	11	8	37	27	44
6	Victoriano Arenas	31	10	14	7	24	19	44
7	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	30	11	11	8	31	29	44
8	Club Mercedes	30	11	10	9	29	23	43
9	Puerto Nuevo	30	9	11	10	27	31	38
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	9	9	13	25	31	36
11	Deportivo Paraguayo	30	7	10	13	22	38	31
12	Club Leandro N. Alem	30	8	7	15	29	51	31
13	JJ Urquiza	30	5	14	11	15	25	29
14	Argentino de Rosario	30	3	15	12	27	39	24

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Lugano	Argentino de Rosario
Deportivo Paraguayo	1-1 D	1-2 L
Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	1-1 D	1-2 L
Puerto Nuevo	1-0 W	0-0 D
Berazategui	1-1 D	1-1 D
Victoriano Arenas	0-0 D	1-1 D
Centro Espanol	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 0 L	0 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CA Lugano (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Lugano

WWDLWDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	6	7	D
20/09	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	8	7	D
12/09	Leones de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
06/09	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
22/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/08	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
09/08	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
31/07	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	4	9	W
25/07	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	6	W

Argentino de Rosario

DLWLLDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
19/09	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
13/09	Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	1	7	L
05/09	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
30/08	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
22/08	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	1-2	1	1	L
16/08	CA Atlas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
08/08	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
31/07	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
23/07	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Lugano vs Argentino de Rosario?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Lugano win (57%). Probabilities: CA Lugano 57%, draw 28%, Argentino de Rosario 15%.

How many goals are expected in CA Lugano vs Argentino de Rosario?

The model expects 2.05 goals (CA Lugano 1.45 · Argentino de Rosario 0.6), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Lugano vs Argentino de Rosario?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.