Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 26/09, 22:00

Prediction: Club Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo

Team pages: Club Mercedes · Puerto Nuevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Club Mercedes1.13

Puerto Nuevo0.94

1X2

39% 32% 29%

Club Mercedes Draw Puerto Nuevo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Mercedes 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWLLDW

Puerto Nuevo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDDLWLLL

Head-to-head

Club Mercedes 2–3–0 Puerto Nuevo (5 last)

Puerto Nuevo1-1Club Mercedes
Club Mercedes1-1Puerto Nuevo
Puerto Nuevo1-2Club Mercedes
Puerto Nuevo2-2Club Mercedes
Club Mercedes1-0Puerto Nuevo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Mercedes 1493 · Puerto Nuevo 1455

	Club Mercedes	Draw	Puerto Nuevo
Our model	39%	33%	29%
Market	39%	32%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Club Mercedes: 2-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Mercedes	Puerto Nuevo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.5	1.5 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X2.80

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:22 +8’	2.30	2.80	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Mercedes 2–3–0 Puerto Nuevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Puerto Nuevo	1-1 HT 0-0	Club Mercedes
24/08/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	1-1 HT 0-0	Puerto Nuevo
11/05/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Puerto Nuevo	1-2 HT 1-1	Club Mercedes
20/10/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Puerto Nuevo	2-2 HT 1-1	Club Mercedes
21/05/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	1-0 HT 1-0	Puerto Nuevo

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sacachispas	29	13	7	9	32	23	46
2	Berazategui	29	11	12	6	32	21	45
3	CA Lugano	29	11	12	6	32	24	45
4	Centro Espanol	29	10	11	8	35	27	41
5	Juventud Unida San Miguel	29	11	8	10	34	28	41
6	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	29	10	11	8	29	28	41
7	Club Mercedes	29	10	10	9	28	23	40
8	Victoriano Arenas	29	9	13	7	22	18	40
9	Puerto Nuevo	29	9	11	9	27	30	38
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	29	9	9	11	25	28	36
11	Deportivo Paraguayo	29	7	9	13	21	37	30
12	JJ Urquiza	29	5	14	10	14	23	29
13	Club Leandro N. Alem	29	7	7	15	27	50	28
14	Argentino de Rosario	29	3	15	11	26	37	24

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Mercedes	Puerto Nuevo
Club Leandro N. Alem	1-0 W	3-0 W
Defensores de Cambaceres	0-3 L	0-2 L
Juventud Unida San Miguel	1-4 L	1-1 D
Sacachispas	2-0 W	1-0 W
Argentino de Rosario	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Puerto Nuevo (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Mercedes

WWDLLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/09	Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
05/09	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
30/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-4	6	5	L
22/08	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
18/08	CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	4	8	L
08/08	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
31/07	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	9	D
25/07	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
18/07	El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	2	7	W

Puerto Nuevo

LDWDDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	2-3	3	8	L
12/09	Central Ballester Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
06/09	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
30/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	3-0	0	4	W
23/08	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	3	9	L
14/08	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-0	2-2	2	3	D
09/08	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
31/07	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	10	W
23/07	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
17/07	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Mercedes win (39%). Probabilities: Club Mercedes 39%, draw 32%, Puerto Nuevo 29%.

How many goals are expected in Club Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Club Mercedes 1.13 · Puerto Nuevo 0.94), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Mercedes vs Puerto Nuevo?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.