Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 29/08, 20:00

Prediction: CA Lugano vs Berazategui

Team pages: CA Lugano · Berazategui

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.7Total

CA Lugano0.84

Berazategui0.86

1X2

32% 34% 34%

CA Lugano Draw Berazategui

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 20%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Lugano 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWWDLW

Berazategui 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDWLDL

Head-to-head

CA Lugano 1–1–3 Berazategui (5 last)

Berazategui2-0CA Lugano
Berazategui3-0CA Lugano
CA Lugano2-0Berazategui
CA Lugano1-3Berazategui
Berazategui2-2CA Lugano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Lugano 1542 · Berazategui 1490

	CA Lugano	Draw	Berazategui
Our model	31%	37%	32%
Market	33%	32%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 1.7 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Lugano (rating 1542 vs 1490).
H2H favours Berazategui: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Lugano	Berazategui
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.4	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.6	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.70

X2.80

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:11 +3’	2.70	2.80	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Lugano 1–1–3 Berazategui

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Berazategui	2-0 HT 1-0	CA Lugano
20/07/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Berazategui	3-0 HT 0-0	CA Lugano
05/04/25 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	2-0 HT 2-0	Berazategui
11/09/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	CA Lugano	1-3 HT 0-0	Berazategui
10/04/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Berazategui	2-2 HT 0-1	CA Lugano

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sacachispas	25	12	6	7	29	18	42
2	CA Lugano	25	10	9	6	29	22	39
3	Centro Espanol	25	10	8	7	32	22	38
4	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	25	10	8	7	26	23	38
5	Berazategui	25	9	10	6	26	19	37
6	Club Mercedes	25	9	9	7	25	15	36
7	Victoriano Arenas	25	8	11	6	19	14	35
8	Juventud Unida San Miguel	25	9	8	8	28	24	35
9	Puerto Nuevo	25	8	11	6	22	24	35
10	Defensores de Cambaceres	25	7	7	11	21	28	28
11	Club Leandro N. Alem	25	7	6	12	26	42	27
12	JJ Urquiza	25	4	12	9	11	21	24
13	Deportivo Paraguayo	25	5	8	12	14	31	23
14	Argentino de Rosario	25	3	12	10	23	31	21

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Lugano	Berazategui
Club Leandro N. Alem	1-0 W	1-1 D
Victoriano Arenas	0-0 D	0-1 L
Defensores de Cambaceres	2-1 W	1-0 W
Centro Espanol	1-0 W	0-1 L
JJ Urquiza	0-0 D	0-0 D
Club Mercedes	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CA Lugano (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Lugano

WWDDWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/08	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
09/08	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
31/07	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-1	2-1	4	9	W
25/07	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
17/07	Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	2-2	3-2	4	8	W
12/07	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
04/07	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
27/06	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
14/06	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	1	7	W

Berazategui

WDLWLDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
16/08	Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	2-2	10	5	D
08/08	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
04/08	Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
31/07	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
25/07	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
11/07	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
05/07	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	9	8	L
28/06	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	2	6	D
15/06	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	3	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Lugano vs Berazategui?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Berazategui win (34%). Probabilities: CA Lugano 32%, draw 34%, Berazategui 34%.

How many goals are expected in CA Lugano vs Berazategui?

The model expects 1.7 goals (CA Lugano 0.84 · Berazategui 0.86), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Lugano vs Berazategui?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.